Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov

$568.6K Vol
Sep 29, 2026
Active
Probability Trend
Pavel Kotov 100.0%
Luca Castelnuovo 0.1%

Core Summary

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Completed Match is dominating the market with an overwhelming 9,995% chance of winning. Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov follows in second place at 5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $568.6K, reflecting intense industry interest.

Breakdown of Competitive Tiers

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

  • Completed Match (9,995%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Completed Match is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 9,995¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $1.6K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

  • Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov (5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov maintains a 5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 5¢.

Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard

The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:

RankPredicted OutcomeWin ProbabilityTrading VolumeBuy Yes (Cost)Buy No (Cost)
1Completed Match9995.0%$1.6K9995¢-9895¢
2Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov5.0%$561.7K95¢

Result Rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Castelnuovo and Pavel Kotov in the Chengdu Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 21, 2026 at 10:00PM ET.

This market will resolve to 'Luca Castelnuovo' if Luca Castelnuovo advances against Pavel Kotov.

This market will resolve to 'Pavel Kotov' if Pavel Kotov advances against Luca Castelnuovo.

If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.

If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trade Activities

Here is the trade activities for this event.

Sep 21, 2026

  • 10:09 PM
    SRsrnpc
    $29.86

    Bought 54.285715 Luca Castelnuovo for Game Spread: Pavel Kotov (-3.5) vs Luca Castelnuovo (+3.5) at 0.55

  • 09:55 PM
    $9.60

    Bought 36.923077 Luca Castelnuovo for Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov at 0.26

  • 09:55 PM
    YNYnkn
    $1.25

    Sold 5 Luca Castelnuovo for Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov at 0.25

  • 09:55 PM
    $1.05

    Bought 4.038462 Luca Castelnuovo for Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov at 0.26

  • 09:22 PM
    YNYnkn
    $1.30

    Bought 5 Luca Castelnuovo for Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov at 0.26

  • 09:18 PM
    HAhardbadger
    $1.33

    Bought 5.115385 Luca Castelnuovo for Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov at 0.26

  • 09:18 PM
    $9.60

    Bought 36.923077 Luca Castelnuovo for Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov at 0.26

  • 09:18 PM
    BRbrunomedm
    $152.60

    Bought 610.4 Luca Castelnuovo for Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov at 0.25

  • 09:18 PM
    $9.60

    Bought 36.923077 Luca Castelnuovo for Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov at 0.26

  • 09:18 PM
    $9.60

    Bought 36.923077 Luca Castelnuovo for Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov at 0.26

  • 09:18 PM
    BAbahn-cuon-baby
    $4.20

    Bought 5.6 Pavel Kotov for Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov at 0.75

  • 09:18 PM
    $1.05

    Bought 4.038462 Luca Castelnuovo for Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov at 0.26

Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event

321
0x32b4…3653
Event PnL
-$323.01
Volume
$6,732.19
Positions
Pavel Kotov
072
0x076d…8d4c
Event PnL
+$326.84
Volume
$6,022.49
Positions
Luca CastelnuovoLuca Castelnuovo
YE3
yesmate
Event PnL
+$23.34
Volume
$3,367.65
Positions
Luca Castelnuovo
VE4
VeryLucky888
Event PnL
-$504.77
Volume
$2,952.37
Positions
Pavel KotovPavel Kotov
F15
0xf12f…3239
Event PnL
+$620.31
Volume
$2,633.93
Positions
Luca Castelnuovo
FI6
fishermm
Event PnL
-$6.82
Volume
$1,365.00
Positions
Luca Castelnuovo
387
38791873984189
Event PnL
-$44.03
Volume
$1,250.09
Positions
Pavel Kotov
DC8
DCAAA
Event PnL
-$55.00
Volume
$1,000.00
Positions
Luca Castelnuovo

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current market consensus on "Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov"?

As of the latest update, Completed Match leads the field as the frontrunner with a 9,995% win probability, followed by Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov at 5%. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $568.6K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.

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