Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? is dominating the market with an overwhelming 9,450% chance of winning. Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? follows in second place at 8,750%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $80.6K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? (9,450%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 9,450¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $80.6K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? (8,750%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? maintains a 8,750% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 8,750¢.

This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger private market valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), for December 31, 2026.

NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.

If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data.

If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.

If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.

Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.

If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.

If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.

The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.

If Anthropic's valuation is equal to OpenAI's valuation at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.

Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.