Opportunity Capture

Thematic Investment Mapping

Map companies to a theme by revenue exposure, transmission channels, and second-order effects, then rank the best expressions of the theme. Use when building a thematic basket or researching idea clusters.

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概要

Map companies to a theme by revenue exposure, transmission channels, and second-order effects, then rank the best expressions of the theme.

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Use This Skill When

The user wants to turn a macro, policy, technology, or industry theme into actionable equity ideas.
The task is to separate pure-play beneficiaries from low-purity narrative beneficiaries.
The theme may have first-order, second-order, and enabling beneficiaries with very different risk/reward.
The goal is to rank the cleanest ways to express a theme, not just list companies.

Required Inputs

Theme definition, catalyst, expected duration, and why the theme matters now.
Geography, sector, or market-cap boundaries for the opportunity set.
Candidate companies or a request to generate them from scratch.
Evidence on revenue exposure, unit sensitivity, pricing leverage, or cost impact tied to the theme.
Optional but useful: crowding, valuation, liquidity, and timeline for transmission.

Workflow

Define the theme precisely. State the driver, duration, transmission path, and what would make the theme fade or fail.
Build the map. Classify names into direct beneficiaries, indirect beneficiaries, enablers, and potential losers.
Score exposure purity. Estimate how much of each company's economics is actually tied to the theme and over what time horizon.
Test transmission quality. Ask whether the theme reaches revenue, margin, cash flow, or only narrative sentiment.
Penalize weak expressions. Discount names where exposure is small, delayed, crowded, or already priced in.
Rank the opportunity set. Recommend the best longs, best shorts, or best pairs based on purity, timing, and valuation.

Output Requirements

Explain the theme through an earnings and cash-flow lens, not only a narrative lens.
Separate direct exposure from supplier, ecosystem, and second-order exposure.
State whether each idea is a clean, medium-purity, or low-purity expression.
Include timing: near-term, medium-term, or long-duration theme realization.
End with the best expression of the theme and why it beats the alternatives.

Output Template

Theme Definition

Define the theme in one sentence.
Explain the catalyst, duration, and what has to be true for the theme to matter financially.
State the key transmission channels into company economics.

Direct Expressions

List the names with the clearest revenue or margin linkage.
For each, explain how the theme shows up in fundamentals, not just story.
Note the likely timing and main condition that could weaken the link.

Indirect and Enabling Expressions

List suppliers, infrastructure providers, distributors, or second-order beneficiaries.
Explain why these names benefit later, less purely, or with more uncertainty.
Distinguish real operating leverage from loose narrative association.

Ranking by Exposure Quality

Rank names by purity, timing, valuation support, and crowding.
State which names are best for clean exposure, optionality, or contrarian positioning.
Note if any "obvious" theme names are actually poor expressions.

Risks and Watchpoints

Explain what could break the thematic link: policy reversal, slower adoption, excess capacity, bundling, or valuation crowding.
Identify the operating metrics or events to monitor.

Buy-Side Conclusion

Best long expression:
Weak or over-owned expression:
One-sentence portfolio takeaway:

Quality Checks

Every company is tied to a specific transmission mechanism.
Exposure purity is differentiated rather than treated as binary.
The ranking reflects both thematic fit and valuation reality.
Second-order beneficiaries are clearly labeled as lower confidence if appropriate.
The final answer says which expression is best and why.

Guardrails

Do not include companies just because management mentions the theme.
Do not confuse correlation with economic exposure.
Avoid building a basket of crowded names without discussing valuation and positioning.
Do not treat optional future products as current thematic exposure.
If the theme is too early or too diffuse, say the opportunity set is not yet investable.

Example Prompts

Map the best equity expressions of this theme and rank them by purity and timing.
Separate direct beneficiaries from second-order beneficiaries for this thematic basket.
Tell me which companies are truly levered to the theme versus just riding the narrative.

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意思決定用のブリーフを準備

The user wants to turn a macro, policy, technology, or industry theme into actionable equity ideas. The task is to separate pure-play beneficiaries from low-purity narrative beneficiaries. The theme may have first-order, second-order, and enabling beneficiaries with very different risk/reward. The goal is to rank the cleanest ways to express a theme, not just list companies.