polymarket-oracle

Polymarket Oracle — Multi-Strategy Arbitrage Bot

🎯 WHAT IT DOES

Scans ALL Polymarket markets for profitable opportunities.

Markets covered:

• ✅ Crypto (BTC, ETH, altcoins - 5min, 15min, daily markets)
• ✅ Politics (Elections, policy, polls, debates)
• ✅ Sports (NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, Soccer, UFC, Tennis, Golf)
• ✅ Economics (Fed rates, CPI, jobs, GDP, stock markets)
• ✅ Technology (Apple, Tesla, Google, IPOs, launches)
• ✅ Entertainment (Oscars, Emmys, box office, celebrities)
• ✅ Weather (Hurricanes, temperatures, climate events)
• ✅ Miscellaneous (Viral events, trends, binary outcomes)

Total: 1000-5000+ markets scanned continuously

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🔥 STRATEGIES DETECTED

1. Parity Arbitrage

What: YES + NO prices don't sum to $1.00

YES price: $0.45
NO price: $0.52
Total: $0.97

Buy both → Guaranteed payout: $1.00
Profit: $0.03 (3.1%)

Risk: ZERO (guaranteed profit)

Frequency: 5-20 per day
Duration: 2-15 seconds
Win rate: 100% (if executed)

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2. Logical Arbitrage

What: Impossible price combinations between related markets

Market A: "Chiefs win Super Bowl" = 28%
Market B: "AFC team wins" = 24%

Impossible! Chiefs ARE an AFC team!

Buy "AFC wins" at 24%
If Chiefs win (28%) → AFC wins → Profit
If other AFC wins → Profit
Cannot lose unless NFC wins

Frequency: 2-10 per day
Duration: Minutes to hours
Win rate: 90-95%

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3. Tail-End Trading

What: Buy highly certain outcomes (>95%) just before resolution

Event: Fed keeps rates (99% certain)
Market price: $0.97

Buy at $0.97
Resolution: $1.00
Profit: $0.03 (3.1%)

Risk: Very low (event almost certain)

Frequency: 10-30 per day
Duration: Hours to days
Win rate: 95-98%

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4. Market Making

What: Provide liquidity, earn spread + maker rebates

Token midpoint: $0.50

Place orders:
BID: $0.475 (maker)
ASK: $0.525 (maker)

Spread capture: $0.05 (10%)
+ Polymarket rebates
+ Liquidity rewards (3x multiplier)

Monthly: 10-25% annualized

Frequency: Continuous
Duration: Indefinite
Win rate: 80-90% (inventory risk)

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5. Latency Arbitrage

What: Trade on information before market adjusts

Bitcoin 5-min market:
- Monitor Binance/Chainlink feed
- When price crosses threshold
- Bot knows resolution 2-15s before UI

Trade before market reacts

Frequency: 50-200 per day (crypto markets)
Duration: Seconds
Win rate: 70-85%

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6. Combinatorial Arbitrage (AI-powered)

What: Find mispriced relationships between multiple markets

Using sentence embeddings (e5-large-v2)
Find related markets:
- "Trump wins election"
- "Trump wins popular vote"
- "Trump wins by 5%+"

If Trump wins by 5%+ → wins popular vote
But prices show 30% vs 48% = Mispricing

Frequency: 3-15 per day
Duration: Hours to days
Win rate: 75-90%

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📊 MARKET CATEGORIZATION

Automatic categorization by keywords:

Categories = {
    'crypto': Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi, altcoins
    'politics': Elections, presidents, votes, polls
    'sports': NBA, NFL, Soccer, UFC, Tennis
    'economics': Fed, CPI, jobs, GDP, stocks
    'technology': Apple, Tesla, Google, IPOs
    'entertainment': Oscars, movies, celebrities
    'weather': Hurricanes, temperatures, climate
    'other': Everything else
}

Strategy application:

• Crypto → Latency + Market Making
• Politics → Logical + Tail-End
• Sports → Parity + News Arbitrage
• Economics → Tail-End + Market Making
• All → Parity + Combinatorial

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⚡ EXECUTION SPEED

Parallel Scanning:

Workers: 50 parallel threads
Markets scanned: 1000-2000 per minute
Opportunities detected: Real-time
Execution: <1 second from detection

Scan Cycle:

00s - Fetch all active markets (Gamma API)
05s - Categorize markets automatically
10s - Parallel scan with 50 workers
30s - Detect opportunities across 5 strategies
35s - Alert via Telegram
40s - Wait 20 seconds
60s - REPEAT

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💰 CAPITAL ALLOCATION

Default configuration:

Total capital: $10,000 (configurable)
Max per market: $1,000 (1-10% of capital)

Strategy allocation:
- Parity arb: 20% ($2,000)
- Tail-end: 40% ($4,000)
- Market making: 30% ($3,000)
- Latency: 10% ($1,000)

Position sizing:

• High certainty (>95%): $500-$5,000
• Medium certainty (90-95%): $200-$2,000
• Speculative (<90%): $100-$1,000

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📱 TELEGRAM ALERTS

Real-time notifications:

🎯 POLYMARKET OPPORTUNITIES

Found 27 opportunities:

PARITY_ARBITRAGE: 8
TAIL_END: 12
MARKET_MAKING: 5
LATENCY: 2

Top 5 by profit:

• parity_arbitrage: 4.23%
  NBA Lakers vs Warriors - Game Winner...

• tail_end: 3.87%
  Fed Rate Decision - Keeps Rates...

• parity_arbitrage: 3.54%
  Bitcoin Closes Above $45K Today...

• tail_end: 3.12%
  Super Bowl Winner - Chiefs...

• market_making: 2.89%
  Ethereum Above $2500 - 5min...

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🛡️ RISK MANAGEMENT

Built-in protections:

• Max position per market
• Total capital limits
• Strategy diversification
• Event resolution monitoring
• Inventory risk tracking

Circuit breakers:

Daily loss > 5% → Pause 1 hour
Total drawdown > 10% → Alert + reduce sizes
API rate limits → Auto-throttle
Failed trades > 10 → Pause strategy

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🎯 PERFORMANCE TARGETS

Conservative (Parity + Tail-End):

Capital: $10,000
Monthly ROI: 8-15%
Monthly profit: $800-$1,500
Trades/day: 10-30
Win rate: 92-98%

Aggressive (All Strategies):

Capital: $50,000
Monthly ROI: 15-30%
Monthly profit: $7,500-$15,000
Trades/day: 50-200
Win rate: 80-90%

Real stats (from research):

• $40M extracted April 2024 - April 2025
• Top users: $1K-$2.2M profits
• Bot win rates: 70-99%
• Opportunities duration: 2s-48h

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📊 API USAGE

Gamma API (Market Discovery):

GET /markets - Get all active markets
GET /markets/{id} - Get market details
Rate limit: 60 req/min

CLOB API (Trading):

GET /book?token_id={id} - Order book
GET /midpoint?token_id={id} - Midpoint price
GET /price?token_id={id}&side={BUY/SELL} - Best price
POST /order - Place order
DELETE /order - Cancel order

Rate limit: Public 60/min, Authenticated 100/min

WebSocket (Real-time):

wss://ws-subscriptions-clob.polymarket.com/ws/market/{token_id}
- Order book updates
- Trade updates
- Price changes

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🔒 SECURITY & TRANSPARENCY

What it does:

• ✅ Scans public Polymarket markets
• ✅ Places orders via CLOB API
• ✅ Uses your Polygon wallet
• ✅ Trades with your USDC
• ✅ Reports via Telegram

What it requires:

• ✅ Polymarket API credentials
• ✅ Polygon wallet private key
• ✅ USDC balance on Polygon
• ✅ Telegram bot (alerts)

Safeguards:

• ✅ Position size limits
• ✅ Strategy diversification
• ✅ Event resolution monitoring
• ✅ Circuit breakers
• ✅ Full audit trail

Never:

• ❌ Trades without detection
• ❌ Exceeds position limits
• ❌ Bypasses risk controls

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⚠️ IMPORTANT NOTES

Polymarket specifics:

• Operates on Polygon (low gas fees)
• Trades settle on-chain (USDC)
• Events resolve when outcome known
• Markets can be cancelled/invalid
• Fees: 2% on winners (some markets)

Capital requirements:

• Minimum: $1,000 (limited opportunities)
• Recommended: $5,000-$10,000
• Professional: $50,000+

Legal:

• Check local regulations
• Prediction markets may be restricted
• Use at your own risk
• Not financial advice

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Version: 1.0.0
License: MIT
Author: Georges Andronescu (Wesley Armando)

SCAN EVERYTHING. TRADE EVERYTHING. PROFIT EVERYWHERE. 🎯💰

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END OF SKILL