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Take-Two Expects GTA VI to Reach 10 Million Views on Day One
"Odds On" is The Fly's weekly series diving into the most interesting bets on events trading platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Robinhood. Subscribers, add $EBET to your Fly portfolios for alerts on news about events trading.THE BACKGROUND:Rockstar Games released Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look on August 27, giving the most substantial official look yet at the long-awaited game. The 27-minute video is made up entirely of in-game footage captured on PlayStation 5, according to Rockstar. It premiered on Netflixat 3 p.m. ET before being released on Rockstar's YouTube channel and the official GTA VI website later that evening. With a release date of November 19, the extended look arrives less than three months before launch. Take-Two, Rockstar's parent company, is counting on the game to become a massive driver of bookings and engagement. The Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look video currently has 8.2M views on YouTube.THE BET:Polymarket offers "# of views of Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look on day 1?" with a volume of $584,396.Traders on Polymarket are pricing in a 22% chance that Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look gets less than 10M views on day one. The "Yes" contract was last trading at 23.9c, while the "No" contract stood at 79c.There is currently a 76% chance that Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look gets 10M-15M views on day one. The "Yes" contract was last trading at 78c, while the "No" contract stood at 27c.Traders on Polymarket are pricing in a 2% chance that Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look gets 15M-20M views on day one. The "Yes" contract was last trading at 2.6c, while the "No" contract stood at 99.5c.THE RULES:This market will resolve according to the number of views the Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look video gets in the first 24 hours after being posted on the Rockstar Games YouTube channel. This market may not resolve until the 24 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is Rockstar Games', specifically the views counter for the described video.
Cboe Data Shows Bullish Sentiment in Netflix, Shares Rise to $82.11
Cboe data suggests bullish flow in Netflix (NFLX), with shares up $2.27, or 2.84%, near $82.11. Options volume roughly in line with average with 141k contracts traded and calls leading puts for a put/call ratio of 0.28, compared to a typical level near 0.49. Implied volatility (IV30) is higher by 0.1 points near 30.35,in the bottom quartile of the past year, suggesting an expected daily move of $1.57. Put-call skew flattened, suggesting a modestly bullish tone.
Paramount Meets Regulatory Clearances for Warner Bros. Acquisition
"Now Streaming" is The Fly's weekly recap of the stories surrounding the biggest content streamers.PLAYING THIS WEEKEND:This weekend's most notable streaming content is the fifth and final season of Netflixmystery teen drama "Outer Banks." Meanwhile, Hulusubscribers can catch the first episode of the new season of comedy series "It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia," while HBO Maxusers can stream psychological drama film "Mother Mary," starring Anne Hathaway and Michaela Coel.PARAMOUNT/WARNER BROS.:Last Friday, Paramount Skydancesaid it has satisfied all regulatory clearances required under the merger agreement to close its proposed acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery. The company said, "The eight-month review process has spanned 68 countries worldwide, including the European Union, UK, Australia, Canada, Brazil, China, COMESA, the U.S. Department of Justice and, most recently, Mexico, which announced its clearance today. These independent regulators from across the globe applied the law and market definitions that reflect how audiences consume entertainment and how media companies compete today - and have consistently found no basis to prevent the transaction from moving forward. Paramount and WBD could and would close today and begin delivering the benefits recognized by regulators around the world, theater owners and others across the industry but for the actions of just 12 state attorneys general." Paramount urges the 12 state attorney generals who brough litigation to "engage with us in good faith, as we have repeatedly sought to do, to resolve this litigation and clear the way to bring these two companies together."Meanwhile, Reuters' David Shepardson reported this week that Paramount has asked a U.S. judge to require states challenging the acquisition of Warner Bros. to post a $1.88B bond to address the costs caused by the delays. The company must pay $7M a day if the $110B merger does not close by September 30. Paramount noted trials with the states is scheduled for March and final legal briefs are in April, which would result in Paramount Skydance paying Warner Bros $1.3B in "ticking fees."Additionally, while a dozen state attorneys general argue the takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery would hurt movie theaters, chains controlling 60% of the U.S. market now argue the opposite, Brooks Barnes of The New York Times reported. Cinemarkis the latest movie theater owner to support CEO David Ellison's deal, pointing to Ellison's "firm" commitment for at least 30 movies in theaters each year, waiting at least 45 days before making them available on streaming, and 90 days before being put on subscription streaming services. AMC Entertainmentendorsed the transaction in April after similar assurances from Ellison. Regal similarly followed suit this month.PEACOCK PRICE:Effective August 18, the prices of Peacocksubscription plans have changed. A Peacock Select monthly subscription is now $8.99/month up from $7.99. A Peacock Premium monthly subscription is now $12.99/month up from $10.99. A Peacock Premium Plus monthly subscription is now $19.99/month up from $16.99. A Peacock Select annual subscription is now $89.99/year up from $79.99. A Peacock Premium annual subscription is now $129.99/year up from $109.99. A Peacock Premium Plus annual subscription is now $199.99/year up from $169.99. The company said, "These price changes allow Peacock to continue to create the best experience for its viewers, remain competitive in the marketplace, and deliver unique content across all genres. Current annual subscribers, or any users on active promotional offers, will continue at their current prices until those plans or offers expire. Subscriptions will then renew at the new price."DISNEY/FCC:Disney's ABC is suing the FCC, arguing that its efforts to challenge ABC's broadcast licenses and regulate The View are unconstitutional attempts to suppress speech, The Wall Street Journal's Joe Flint reported. ABC's current fight with the FCC stems from a broader dispute that began with Brendan Carr's investigation into Disney's DEI practices, while ABC executives viewed the probe as connected to criticism from programs including Jimmy Kimmel Live! and The View, Flint said. The FCC maintains the DEI review is focused on potential discrimination violations and is separate from programming, while ABC argues the investigations have become a means of pressuring the network over its speech.YOUTUBE/NETFLIX:YouTubeis offering millions of dollars to popular channels on its platform if they upload videos exclusively to the site for a period of time, Lucas Shaw of Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter. YouTube is hoping to halve Netflix's pursuit of its top stars. The company has not yet finalized any deals with creators but is close to an agreement with several partners, the sources added.STOCK PLAYS:Other publicly traded companies in the streaming space include Apple, Roku, Fox, Amazon, AMC Global Media, and Fubo.
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