Trading Automation

Polymarket Trading Bot

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Überblick

Polymarket Trading Bot is an AI-driven trading assistant for Polymarket 5-minute BTC/ETH prediction markets.

Polymarket Trading Bot is an AI-driven trading assistant for Polymarket 5-minute BTC/ETH prediction markets. It reliably extracts the critical Price-To-Beat (PTB) using a multi-layer fallback (API → HTML → Playwright → Binance), polls markets every 2 seconds, and pre-fetches PTB as markets appear. The decision engine combines position, momentum, RSI, and volume into a 0–100 score and applies strict betting rules (confidence ≥55%, expected value >0.05, target odds <0.90). Designed for real-time monitoring and low-latency execution, it triggers analysis 40 seconds before market close and logs every recommendation for audit and backtesting. Use cases include automated paper trading, live risk-managed bets (opt-in), signal research, and integration into trading workflows. Core advantages are robust PTB retrieval, EV-driven filtering to reduce adverse bets, and transparent, configurable risk controls.

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AI-powered trading bot for Polymarket 5-minute BTC/ETH price prediction markets.

Features

Accurate PTB Extraction: Multi-layer fallback (API → HTML → Playwright → Binance)
Advanced AI Model: Position + momentum + RSI + volume analysis
EV-Based Decisions: Only bet when expected value > 0.05
Real-time Monitoring: Auto-detect new markets and pre-fetch PTB
Risk Management: Confidence threshold + odds filtering

Quick Start

# Install dependencies
pip3 install playwright requests

# Install Playwright browser
playwright install chromium

# Run the bot
python3 auto_bot_v2.py

How It Works

Market Detection: Polls Polymarket API every 2 seconds
PTB Pre-fetch: Gets Price to Beat when market appears (~10s)
AI Analysis: Triggers 40 seconds before market close
Decision: Outputs bet recommendation (betting disabled by default)

AI Model

Scoring System (0-100)

Signal	Weight	Description
Position	50%	Current price vs PTB (ATR-normalized)
Momentum	30%	3-min trend + 1-min micro momentum
RSI	10%	Overbought/oversold correction
Volume	10%	Volume confirmation

Betting Criteria

Confidence ≥ 55%
Expected Value > 0.05
Target odds < 0.90

Configuration

Edit auto_bot_v2.py to enable real betting:

# Line ~155
execute_bet(slug, direction, 10)  # Uncomment to enable

Files

auto_bot_v2.py - Main bot script
ai_analyze_v2.py - Decision engine
ai_trader/ai_model_v2.py - Scoring model
ai_trader/playwright_ptb.py - PTB extraction
logs/decisions_v2.jsonl - Decision history

Example Output

🆕 新市场: BTC | btc-updown-5m-1772806500
   结束: 14:20:00 UTC | 剩余: 296s
   📡 提前获取 PTB...
✅ PTB=68824.89 (Playwright, 14.2s)

============================================================
🔔 触发分析: BTC | btc-updown-5m-1772806500 | 剩余 39s
  💰 PTB: $68,824.89
  📊 赔率: UP=0.455 DOWN=0.545
  🤖 AI: UP | 置信度: 88%
  📈 位置: UP(45) 动量: UP(25) ATR: 1.26x
  💵 EV: +0.923 | 目标赔率: 0.455
  ✅ 满足下注条件！conf=88% ev=+0.923 odds=0.455
============================================================