Ankara: Solana Sierra vs Deniz Dilek

$97.2K Vol
2026年9月29日
Active
機率趨勢
Solana Sierra 58.5%
Deniz Dilek 41.5%

核心摘要

根據「Ankara: Solana Sierra vs Deniz Dilek」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前,Completed Match 以壓倒性的 49.5% 獲勝機率主導市場。該市場的下注量已達 $97.2K,反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:

🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者

  • Completed Match (49.5%):Completed Match 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 50¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $5.2K 的成交量。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes(成本)買入 No(成本)
1Completed Match49.5%$5.2K50¢51¢

裁決規則

This market refers to the tennis match between Solana Sierra and Deniz Dilek in the Ankara, originally scheduled for September 22, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.

This market will resolve to 'Solana Sierra' if Solana Sierra advances against Deniz Dilek.

This market will resolve to 'Deniz Dilek' if Deniz Dilek advances against Solana Sierra.

If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.

If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AI 估值分析:發現市場錯誤定價與 EV 差

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場,而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布,我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比,可揭示出重大背離——即期望值(EV)差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果,而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算,以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離:

  • 最被高估的結果:Completed Match 當前交易價為 49.5%,但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 1%,形成 -48.5% 的較大負 EV 差,表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
Completed Match49.5%1.0%-48.5%

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Sep 22, 2026

  • 10:18 PM
    BRbrunnpas
    $22.14

    Bought 54 Deniz Dilek for Ankara: Solana Sierra vs Deniz Dilek at 0.41

  • 10:17 PM
    0X0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
    $14.40

    Bought 24 Solana Sierra for Ankara: Solana Sierra vs Deniz Dilek at 0.6

  • 10:17 PM
    EUEulhunter
    $7.60

    Bought 19 Deniz Dilek for Ankara: Solana Sierra vs Deniz Dilek at 0.4

  • 10:17 PM
    3838791873984189
    $158.67

    Sold 387 Deniz Dilek for Ankara: Solana Sierra vs Deniz Dilek at 0.41

  • 10:17 PM
    0X0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
    $0.20

    Bought 0.34 Solana Sierra for Ankara: Solana Sierra vs Deniz Dilek at 0.59

  • 09:12 PM
    TRTradersamzy
    $1.00

    Bought 1.694914 Solana Sierra for Ankara: Solana Sierra vs Deniz Dilek at 0.59

  • 09:11 PM
    TITin-sttt
    $29.20

    Sold 73 Deniz Dilek for Ankara: Solana Sierra vs Deniz Dilek at 0.4

  • 09:05 PM
    0X0x376FBec636b920eB563C826750EB498728850Cb6-1764010232848
    $0.68

    Sold 1.17 Solana Sierra for Ankara: Solana Sierra vs Deniz Dilek at 0.58

  • 09:03 PM
    $445.91

    Bought 731 Solana Sierra for Ankara: Solana Sierra vs Deniz Dilek at 0.61

  • 09:02 PM
    $142.78

    Bought 242 Solana Sierra for Ankara: Solana Sierra vs Deniz Dilek at 0.59

  • 09:02 PM
    $26.66

    Bought 45.19 Solana Sierra for Ankara: Solana Sierra vs Deniz Dilek at 0.59

  • 08:51 PM
    COColaMan
    $9.83

    Sold 16.94 Solana Sierra for Ankara: Solana Sierra vs Deniz Dilek at 0.58

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

KE1
Kev69
事件損益
-$78.29
成交量
$15,349.47
持倉數
Solana Sierra
A02
0xa0f2…1848
事件損益
-$49.44
成交量
$8,531.11
持倉數
Deniz Dilek
KI3
KioskJammer
事件損益
-$1,289.63
成交量
$6,912.49
持倉數
Solana Sierra
324
0x32b4…3653
事件損益
+$174.94
成交量
$5,207.93
持倉數
Deniz Dilek
385
38791873984189
事件損益
+$112.05
成交量
$4,307.77
持倉數
Deniz Dilek
GA6
Gaditima
事件損益
+$7.44
成交量
$3,532.10
持倉數
Deniz Dilek
077
0x076d…8d4c
事件損益
+$698.91
成交量
$2,719.24
持倉數
Deniz Dilek
658
6512395314597884
事件損益
+$49.72
成交量
$2,314.30
持倉數
Deniz Dilek

常見問題

目前市場對「Ankara: Solana Sierra vs Deniz Dilek」的共識是什麼?

截至最新更新,Completed Match 以 49.5% 的獲勝機率領跑。該市場總成交量已達 $97.2K,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

AI 公允價值與即時市場交易價值有何不同?

即時市場交易價值反映的是公眾情緒、訂單簿動能與投機資金。我們的 AI 公允價值則由量化模型獨立計算,剔除情緒炒作、專注底層數據。兩者出現顯著背離時即形成 EV 差,提示市場對某個結果可能存在錯誤定價。

市場共識是否對某個結果反應過度?

是的——資料顯示市場對 Completed Match 存在明顯的反應過度。人群把其即時交易價值推高至 49.5%,但我們的公允價值評估認為其真實機率僅為 1%,形成 -48.5% 的負 EV 差,表明該合約被高估。

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