Suzhou: Yulia Putintseva vs Yushan Shao

$191.9K Vol
2026年10月13日
Active
機率趨勢
Yulia Putintseva 50.0%
Yushan Shao 50.0%

核心摘要

根據「Suzhou: Yulia Putintseva vs Yushan Shao」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前,Completed Match 以壓倒性的 10% 獲勝機率主導市場。該市場的下注量已達 $191.9K,反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:

🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者

  • Completed Match (10%):Completed Match 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 10¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $500 的成交量。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes(成本)買入 No(成本)
1Completed Match10.0%$50010¢90¢

裁決規則

This market refers to the tennis match between Yulia Putintseva and Yushan Shao in the Suzhou, originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 10:00PM ET.

This market will resolve to 'Yulia Putintseva' if Yulia Putintseva advances against Yushan Shao.

This market will resolve to 'Yushan Shao' if Yushan Shao advances against Yulia Putintseva.

If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.

If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AI 估值分析:發現市場錯誤定價與 EV 差

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場,而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布,我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比,可揭示出重大背離——即期望值(EV)差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果,而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算,以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離:

  • 最被高估的結果:Completed Match 當前交易價為 10%,但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 1%,形成 -9% 的較大負 EV 差,表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
Completed Match10.0%1.0%-9.0%

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Oct 6, 2026

  • 12:12 AM
    ZZzzzgoodwill1
    $8.90

    Bought 222.44 Yushan Shao for Suzhou: Yulia Putintseva vs Yushan Shao at 0.04

Oct 5, 2026

  • 11:33 PM
    NInigiri99
    $2.56

    Bought 64 Yushan Shao for Suzhou: Yulia Putintseva vs Yushan Shao at 0.04

  • 11:31 PM
    0X0xbfD770B7ff0
    $2.58

    Bought 4.961539 Yulia Putintseva for Game Spread: Yulia Putintseva (-7.5) vs Yushan Shao (+7.5) at 0.52

  • 11:07 PM
    BAbahn-cuon-baby
    $10.00

    Bought 10.41665 Yulia Putintseva for Suzhou: Yulia Putintseva vs Yushan Shao at 0.96

  • 11:07 PM
    WIWinerius
    $743.90

    Bought 774.9 Yulia Putintseva for Suzhou: Yulia Putintseva vs Yushan Shao at 0.96

  • 11:07 PM
    NOno1dodgersfan
    $6.64

    Bought 166 Yushan Shao for Suzhou: Yulia Putintseva vs Yushan Shao at 0.04

  • 10:59 PM
    0X0x1E4b57F70eA89F197213335c5Eaa0A04
    $77.45

    Bought 80.677075 Yulia Putintseva for Suzhou: Yulia Putintseva vs Yushan Shao at 0.96

  • 10:59 PM
    BAbahn-cuon-baby
    $10.00

    Bought 10.41665 Yulia Putintseva for Suzhou: Yulia Putintseva vs Yushan Shao at 0.96

  • 10:58 PM
    ——
    $1.00

    Bought 20 Yushan Shao for Suzhou: Yulia Putintseva vs Yushan Shao at 0.05

  • 10:26 PM
    YAYanis2603
    $120.00

    Bought 125 Yulia Putintseva for Suzhou: Yulia Putintseva vs Yushan Shao at 0.96

  • 10:07 PM
    MAmakizinchers
    $24.00

    Bought 25 Yulia Putintseva for Suzhou: Yulia Putintseva vs Yushan Shao at 0.96

  • 10:07 PM
    MAmakizinchers
    $1,033.87

    Bought 1076.95 Yulia Putintseva for Suzhou: Yulia Putintseva vs Yushan Shao at 0.96

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

2C1
0x2c33…5465
事件損益
-$534.99
成交量
$99,350.86
持倉數
Yulia Putintseva
7E2
0x7Ed1…3395
事件損益
+$270.00
成交量
$59,999.98
持倉數
Yushan Shao
OM3
omnibus-076daa
事件損益
-$163.41
成交量
$52,397.50
持倉數
Yulia Putintseva
AR4
ArbTraderRookie
事件損益
+$97.09
成交量
$46,827.49
持倉數
Yushan ShaoNo
ST5
Stavenson
事件損益
+$275.20
成交量
$42,337.72
持倉數
Yushan Shao
NI6
NinjaSquirtle
事件損益
+$63.27
成交量
$7,427.88
持倉數
Yushan ShaoOver
AB7
Absolyutno-pohuy
事件損益
+$1,953.66
成交量
$7,343.82
持倉數
Yushan Shao
SA8
Saber-greed
事件損益
-$6.92
成交量
$2,505.80
持倉數
Yulia Putintseva

常見問題

目前市場對「Suzhou: Yulia Putintseva vs Yushan Shao」的共識是什麼?

截至最新更新,Completed Match 以 10% 的獲勝機率領跑。該市場總成交量已達 $191.9K,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

AI 公允價值與即時市場交易價值有何不同?

即時市場交易價值反映的是公眾情緒、訂單簿動能與投機資金。我們的 AI 公允價值則由量化模型獨立計算,剔除情緒炒作、專注底層數據。兩者出現顯著背離時即形成 EV 差,提示市場對某個結果可能存在錯誤定價。

市場共識是否對某個結果反應過度?

是的——資料顯示市場對 Completed Match 存在明顯的反應過度。人群把其即時交易價值推高至 10%,但我們的公允價值評估認為其真實機率僅為 1%,形成 -9% 的負 EV 差,表明該合約被高估。

免費開始