
Phoenix Mercury vs. Portland Fire
核心摘要
根據「Phoenix Mercury vs. Portland Fire」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前,Phoenix Mercury vs. Portland Fire 以壓倒性的 5,850% 獲勝機率主導市場;Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-1.5) 以 5,650% 位居第二,Spread -2.5 以 5,350% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $144K,反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:
🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Portland Fire (5,850%):Phoenix Mercury vs. Portland Fire 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 5,850¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $116.6K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯隊:主要挑戰者
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-1.5) (5,650%):作為最可行的替代選項,Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-1.5) 保持著 5,650% 的成真機率,其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 5,650¢。
- Spread -2.5 (5,350%):以 5,350% 的機率位列第三,市場對 Spread -2.5 持謹慎懷疑態度,除非勢頭轉變,否則視其為外圍黑馬。
🥉 第三梯隊:長尾選項(合計約 0%)
在前三名之外,還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低,但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖:
- 替代選項:包括 O/U 171.5 (5,250%)、Spread -3.5 (4,850%),以及 O/U 172.5 (4,850%)。
- 投機成交:儘管統計機率偏低,像 O/U 173.5 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes(成本) | 買入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Phoenix Mercury vs. Portland Fire | 5850.0% | $116.6K | 5850¢ | -5750¢ |
| 2 | Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-1.5) | 5650.0% | $4.0K | 5650¢ | -5550¢ |
| 3 | Spread -2.5 | 5350.0% | $2.3K | 5350¢ | -5250¢ |
| 4 | O/U 171.5 | 5250.0% | $7.5K | 5250¢ | -5150¢ |
| 5 | Spread -3.5 | 4850.0% | $1.9K | 4850¢ | -4750¢ |
| 6 | O/U 172.5 | 4850.0% | $7.2K | 4850¢ | -4750¢ |
| 7 | O/U 173.5 | 4550.0% | $4.0K | 4550¢ | -4450¢ |
| 8 | Phoenix Mercury vs. Portland Fire: O/U 175.5 | 4050.0% | $719 | 4050¢ | -3950¢ |
| 9 | Alyssa Thomas: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 4050.0% | — | 4050¢ | -3950¢ |
| 10 | Alyssa Thomas: Assists O/U 8.5 | 3850.0% | — | 3850¢ | -3750¢ |
| 11 | Alyssa Thomas: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 3800.0% | — | 3800¢ | -3700¢ |
| 12 | Alyssa Thomas: Points O/U 15.5 | 3400.0% | — | 3400¢ | -3300¢ |
裁決規則
In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for September 17 at 10:00PM ET:
If the Phoenix Mercury win, the market will resolve to "Phoenix Mercury".
If the Portland Fire win, the market will resolve to "Portland Fire".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Sep 17, 2026
- 11:32 PMSWSwiss-c$5.00
Bought 10.64 Portland Fire for Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-2.5) at 0.47
- 11:32 PMDODonnieDarko73253$13.04
Bought 24.61 Phoenix Mercury for Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-2.5) at 0.53
- 11:29 PM0X0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603$156.00
Bought 300 Over for Phoenix Mercury vs. Portland Fire: O/U 171.5 at 0.52
- 11:29 PMNInigiri99$133.12
Bought 256 Over for Phoenix Mercury vs. Portland Fire: O/U 171.5 at 0.52
- 11:29 PMNInigiri99$490.88
Bought 944 Over for Phoenix Mercury vs. Portland Fire: O/U 171.5 at 0.52
- 11:28 PM0X0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603$44.46
Bought 85.5 Over for Phoenix Mercury vs. Portland Fire: O/U 171.5 at 0.52
- 11:28 PMNInigiri99$132.08
Bought 254 Over for Phoenix Mercury vs. Portland Fire: O/U 171.5 at 0.52
- 11:28 PMNInigiri99$156.52
Bought 301 Over for Phoenix Mercury vs. Portland Fire: O/U 171.5 at 0.52
- 11:28 PMNInigiri99$143.00
Bought 275 Over for Phoenix Mercury vs. Portland Fire: O/U 171.5 at 0.52
- 11:28 PMNInigiri99$363.48
Bought 699 Over for Phoenix Mercury vs. Portland Fire: O/U 171.5 at 0.52
- 11:24 PMXPxp6666$10.00
Bought 20.408164 Phoenix Mercury for Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-3.5) at 0.49
- 10:36 PMUPUpTheBlues$34.30
Bought 70 Phoenix Mercury for Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-3.5) at 0.49
正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包
常見問題
目前市場對「Phoenix Mercury vs. Portland Fire」的共識是什麼?
截至最新更新,Phoenix Mercury vs. Portland Fire 以 5,850% 的獲勝機率領跑,其次是 Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-1.5)(5,650%),以及 Spread -2.5(5,350%)。該市場總成交量已達 $144K,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。
