Polo makes landfall in Mexico as a hurricane?

根據「Polo makes landfall in Mexico as a hurricane?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Yes 以壓倒性的 5,000% 獲勝機率主導市場；No 以 5,000% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Yes (5,000%)：Yes 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 5,000¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• No (5,000%)：作為最可行的替代選項，No 保持著 5,000% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 5,000¢。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that Polo (NHC designation EP172026) made landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, by October 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The landfall must occur by that deadline; confirmation may arrive afterward. If Polo makes landfall more than once, any one qualifying landfall resolves this market to "Yes".

A report means an explicit statement, in a Tropical Cyclone Update, Public Advisory (including intermediate and special advisories), or Discussion issued for Hurricane Polo, that the center made landfall or moved onshore. Landfall occurs when the surface center intersects the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.

A landfall counts if the NHC reports it in Mexico, or on any island, reef, or shoal those products identify as part of Mexico. This market applies no geographic boundary other than the one the NHC applies. A track map, cone graphic, or GIS product will not be considered for resolution, including where the line it draws passes over land. Track reconstruction by any party, an NHC center position that the NHC does not report as a landfall, and landfall reports from any other meteorological agency or from news media, will not be considered for resolution.

Polo must be a hurricane at the reported landfall: maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater, Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php). The intensity is the one the NHC states for the landfall, or, where the NHC states none, the one in the last advisory issued before it. Wind speeds will be used exactly as published by the National Hurricane Center, without rounding. The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds in increments of 5 mph. If Polo is a tropical storm, a tropical depression, a post-tropical cyclone, or a remnant low at the landfall, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve once the NHC publishes a qualifying report, or at October 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the NHC has published none at that point, or has issued its final advisory on Polo without one, this market will resolve to "No". No substitute data provider will be used.

If the NHC corrects or removes a published landfall report or stated intensity as erroneous before this market resolves, the corrected information will be used; otherwise the published information stands. Otherwise, once the NHC has published a qualifying report, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of subsequent revisions. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Polo will not be considered for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Updates, Public Advisories, and Discussions issued for Hurricane Polo by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/).