Will Humzh's subathon end by...?

根據「Will Humzh's subathon end by...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，October 31 以壓倒性的 5,000% 獲勝機率主導市場；November 30 以 5,000% 位居第二，December 31 以 5,000% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• October 31 (5,000%)：October 31 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 5,000¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• November 30 (5,000%)：作為最可行的替代選項，November 30 保持著 5,000% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 5,000¢。
• December 31 (5,000%)：以 5,000% 的機率位列第三，市場對 December 31 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 January 31 (5,000%)，以及 February 28 (5,000%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 January 31 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Humzh's 2026 subathon, which began on September 25, 2026, on his Twitch channel (https://www.twitch.tv/humzh), ends by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The subathon will be considered to have ended when its countdown timer reaches zero and the subathon concludes, or at the time Humzh officially announces that the subathon is over before the timer runs out. If Humzh's Twitch channel is banned or suspended, the subathon will be considered to have ended only once Humzh officially confirms that it will not resume, or once the ban or suspension is confirmed to be permanent. Pauses of the countdown (e.g., while Humzh sleeps or takes a break), offline periods, and temporary stream interruptions do not count as the subathon ending, regardless of their length, unless Humzh officially announces that the subathon is over. Any later restart, extension after an official end, or new subathon will not be considered.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Humzh's official Twitch broadcast and official social media accounts (e.g., https://x.com/humzhlol), together with the official subathon tracker (https://humzh.tv/subathon). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.