Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?

根據「Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，No 以壓倒性的 7,500% 獲勝機率主導市場；Yes 以 2,500% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• No (7,500%)：No 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 7,500¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Yes (2,500%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Yes 保持著 2,500% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 2,500¢。

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026, with a second round on November 1, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than half of the valid votes in the first round, or if a candidate secures more than half of the valid votes but voter turnout is not more than half of registered voters.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).