Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by...?

根據「Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，December 31 以壓倒性的 3,050% 獲勝機率主導市場；October 31 以 2,800% 位居第二，September 30 以 1,700% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $33.5K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• December 31 (3,050%)：December 31 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 3,050¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $16.4K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• October 31 (2,800%)：作為最可行的替代選項，October 31 保持著 2,800% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 2,800¢。
• September 30 (1,700%)：以 1,700% 的機率位列第三，市場對 September 30 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

Ukrainian airspace has been closed to air traffic since the full-scale invasion by the Russian Federation on February 24, 2022. Boryspil International Airport (KBP / UKBB), located near Kyiv, suspended all routine operations immediately following the start of hostilities, and routine and general flights remain suspended.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one manned aircraft successfully lands at or takes off from Boryspil International Airport between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Eligible flights include any manned fixed-wing aircraft or rotorcraft (helicopter), regardless of registration, owner, or purpose (e.g., commercial passenger, cargo, military transport, diplomatic or state flight, technical ferry, or emergency landing).

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs, drones, or loitering munitions), touch-and-go passes without a full touchdown and stop or taxi, and landings or departures occurring outside the physical boundaries of Boryspil International Airport will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be verified radar and ADS-B flight tracking data (e.g., Flightradar24, ADS-B Exchange) and official announcements from Boryspil International Airport, the State Aviation Administration of Ukraine, or the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.