Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?
核心摘要
根據「Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前，No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 以壓倒性的 6,170% 獲勝機率主導市場；No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate 以 3,195% 位居第二，Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate 以 360% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $86.8K，反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：
🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者
- No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate (6,170%)：No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 6,170¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $980 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者
- No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate (3,195%)：作為最可行的替代選項，No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate 保持著 3,195% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 3,195¢。
- Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate (360%)：以 360% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。
🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）
在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：
- 替代選項：包括 Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate (280%)。
- 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes（成本） | 買入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate | 6170.0% | $980 | 6170¢ | -6070¢ |
| 2 | No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | 3195.0% | $17.8K | 3195¢ | -3095¢ |
| 3 | Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate | 360.0% | $39.5K | 360¢ | -260¢ |
| 4 | Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate | 280.0% | $28.5K | 280¢ | -180¢ |
裁決規則
The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/usp.pdf.
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Oct 13, 2026
- 12:41 PM——$2.20
Sold 55.1 Yes for Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? at 0.04
- 12:41 PMXIxinyuan$61.29
Sold 161.29 No for Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? at 0.38
- 12:41 PM——$17.54
Sold 54.8 Yes for Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate? at 0.32
- 12:41 PM——$1.65
Sold 55.12 Yes for Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate? at 0.03
- 12:41 PMXIxinyuan$160.00
Sold 500 Yes for Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate? at 0.32
- 12:08 PMTHthecaricature$8.00
Bought 200 Yes for Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? at 0.04
- 12:04 PMTHthecaricature$6.00
Bought 200 Yes for Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate? at 0.03
- 10:53 AM0X0xD324e20e3462d859a2913C5bfD162Ed7F9Aeb23c-1773152871743$10.05
Bought 16.207456 Yes for Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? at 0.62
- 10:53 AM——$5.17
Sold 16.15 Yes for Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate? at 0.32
- 10:53 AM——$0.65
Sold 16.24 Yes for Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? at 0.04
- 10:53 AM——$0.49
Sold 16.23 Yes for Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate? at 0.03
- 09:15 AMV2v2boring$1.64
Bought 1.709845 No for Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? at 0.96
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常見問題
目前市場對「Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?」的共識是什麼？
截至最新更新，No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 以 6,170% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate（3,195%），以及 Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate（360%）。該市場總成交量已達 $86.8K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。