Who will Trump publicly insult by September 30?

根據「Who will Trump publicly insult by September 30?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Mark Carney 以壓倒性的 89% 獲勝機率主導市場；Kathy Hochul 以 76.5% 位居第二，Tucker Carlson 以 74% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $115.2K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Mark Carney (89%)：Mark Carney 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 89¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $3.4K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Kathy Hochul (76.5%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Kathy Hochul 保持著 76.5% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 77¢。
• Tucker Carlson (74%)：以 74% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Tucker Carlson 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 Letitia James (71.5%)、Ilhan Omar (62%)，以及 Jimmy Kimmel (61%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Elizabeth Warren 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify.

Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify.

A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify.

A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare").

A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.

The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

• 最被高估的結果：Melania Trump 當前交易價為 49.9%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 2.8%，形成 -47.1% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
• 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 Alex Jones 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 27.7% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 52.7%——形成可觀的 +25.1% EV 差。
• 被忽視的黑馬：其他值得注意的偏離包括 Kathy Hochul（EV 差：+6.1%）以及 Letitia James（EV 差：+5.7%）。儘管我們的預測模型給予更強的統計支撐，這些長尾機會仍被即時訂單簿大幅低估。