Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

根據「Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Joe Biden 以壓倒性的 9,920% 獲勝機率主導市場；Barack Obama 以 9,900% 位居第二，Hakeem Jeffries 以 8,600% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $1.5K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Joe Biden (9,920%)：Joe Biden 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 9,920¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $599 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Barack Obama (9,900%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Barack Obama 保持著 9,900% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 9,900¢。
• Hakeem Jeffries (8,600%)：以 8,600% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Hakeem Jeffries 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 Jerome Powell (7,400%)、Abdul El-Sayed (7,400%)，以及 Kathy Hochul (7,400%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Letitia James 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify.

Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify.

A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify.

A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare").

A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.

The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.