Which parties will win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?

根據「Which parties will win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) 以壓倒性的 98.6% 獲勝機率主導市場；Rodina 以 94.9% 位居第二，Yabloko 以 5.6% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $95.2K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) (98.6%)：A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 99¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $5.5K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Rodina (94.9%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Rodina 保持著 94.9% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 95¢。
• Yabloko (5.6%)：以 5.6% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Yabloko 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 Russian Ecological Party “The Greens” (4%)，以及 Russian Party of Pensioners for Social Justice (1.1%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Russian Ecological Party “The Greens” 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed party receives at least one seat in the Russian State Duma as a result of the 2026 Russian parliamentary election. Otherwise, that market will resolve to “No”.

Seats will be counted only where the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation attributes them to the named party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If a named party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, each market will resolve to “No”.

These markets will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, they will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

• 最被高估的結果：Rodina 當前交易價為 94.9%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 86.8%，形成 -8.1% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
• 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 Yabloko 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 5.6% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 11.6%——形成可觀的 +6% EV 差。
• 被忽視的黑馬：其他值得注意的偏離包括 Russian Party of Pensioners for Social Justice（EV 差：+4.4%）以及 Russian Ecological Party “The Greens”（EV 差：+3.1%）。儘管我們的預測模型給予更強的統計支撐，這些長尾機會仍被即時訂單簿大幅低估。