Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026?

$6.4M Vol
2026年9月1日
Active
機率趨勢
Las Vegas Raiders 92.3%
Dallas Cowboys 5.0%
Philadelphia Eagles 3.4%
San Francisco 49ers 1.4%
New York Jets 1.3%

核心摘要

根據「Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Las Vegas Raiders 以壓倒性的 93.5% 獲勝機率主導市場；Dallas Cowboys 以 2.9% 位居第二，New York Jets 以 1% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $6.4M，反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

  • Las Vegas Raiders (93.5%)：Las Vegas Raiders 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 94¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $21.8K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

  • Dallas Cowboys (2.9%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Dallas Cowboys 保持著 2.9% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 3¢。
  • New York Jets (1%)：以 1% 的機率位列第三，市場對 New York Jets 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 2.7%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

  • 替代選項：包括 Jacksonville Jaguars (0.3%)、Philadelphia Eagles (0.3%)，以及 Detroit Lions (0.2%)。
  • 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Chicago Bears 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes（成本）買入 No（成本）
1Las Vegas Raiders93.5%$21.8K94¢7¢
2Dallas Cowboys2.9%$85.8K3¢97¢
3New York Jets1.0%$1.2M1¢99¢
4Jacksonville Jaguars0.3%$437.1K0¢100¢
5Philadelphia Eagles0.3%$13.7K0¢100¢
6Detroit Lions0.2%$15.8K0¢100¢
7Chicago Bears0.1%$300.5K0¢100¢
8San Francisco 49ers0.1%$620.3K0¢100¢
9Arizona Cardinals0.1%$73.4K0¢100¢
10Atlanta Falcons0.1%$8.7K0¢100¢
11Baltimore Ravens0.1%$11.9K0¢100¢
12Buffalo Bills0.1%$7.7K0¢100¢
13Carolina Panthers0.1%$846.3K0¢100¢
14Cincinnati Bengals0.1%$8.6K0¢100¢
15Cleveland Browns0.1%$6.3K0¢100¢
16Denver Broncos0.1%$5.0K0¢100¢
17Green Bay Packers0.1%$30.5K0¢100¢
18Houston Texans0.1%$6.0K0¢100¢
19Indianapolis Colts0.1%$1.2M0¢100¢
20Kansas City Chiefs0.1%$34.6K0¢100¢
21Los Angeles Chargers0.1%$5.3K0¢100¢
22Los Angeles Rams0.1%$406.0K0¢100¢
23Miami Dolphins0.1%$4.0K0¢100¢
24Minnesota Vikings0.1%$61.3K0¢100¢
25New England Patriots0.1%$6.9K0¢100¢
26New Orleans Saints0.1%$7.1K0¢100¢
27New York Giants0.1%$4.2K0¢100¢
28Pittsburgh Steelers0.1%$7.1K0¢100¢
29Seattle Seahawks0.1%$7.5K0¢100¢
30Tampa Bay Buccaneers0.1%$69.7K0¢100¢
31Tennessee Titans0.1%$889.0K0¢100¢
32Washington Commanders0.1%$5.3K0¢100¢

裁決規則

This market will resolve to the next team Maxx Crosby officially joins by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

If Maxx Crosby does not officially join a new team by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Las Vegas Raiders”.

If Maxx Crosby joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to “Other”.

If Maxx Crosby is released and is not signed by another team, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

Transfers or assignments between a team’s senior team and reserve or affiliate teams will not be considered for this market.

An official signing announcement prior to the market’s close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the Las Vegas Raiders and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.

AI 估值分析：發現市場錯誤定價與 EV 差

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

  • 最被高估的結果：Las Vegas Raiders 當前交易價為 93.5%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 73.3%，形成 -20.2% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
  • 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 Baltimore Ravens 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 0.1% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 16.8%——形成可觀的 +16.7% EV 差。
  • 被忽視的黑馬：其他值得注意的偏離包括 Arizona Cardinals（EV 差：+16.1%）以及 Cleveland Browns（EV 差：+15.1%）。儘管我們的預測模型給予更強的統計支撐，這些長尾機會仍被即時訂單簿大幅低估。
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
Las Vegas Raiders93.5%73.3%-20.2%
Dallas Cowboys2.9%3.0%+0.2%
New York Jets1.0%0.5%-0.5%
Jacksonville Jaguars0.3%0.3%-0.0%
Philadelphia Eagles0.3%1.0%+0.7%
Detroit Lions0.2%0.1%-0.1%
Chicago Bears0.1%8.7%+8.5%
San Francisco 49ers0.1%0.5%+0.3%
Arizona Cardinals0.1%16.2%+16.1%
Atlanta Falcons0.1%14.0%+13.9%
Baltimore RavensBest EV0.1%16.8%+16.7%
Buffalo Bills0.1%4.8%+4.7%
Carolina Panthers0.1%10.7%+10.6%
Cincinnati Bengals0.1%7.0%+7.0%
Cleveland Browns0.1%15.2%+15.1%
Denver Broncos0.1%8.6%+8.5%
Green Bay Packers0.1%14.7%+14.6%
Houston Texans0.1%5.0%+4.9%
Indianapolis Colts0.1%5.5%+5.5%
Kansas City Chiefs0.1%4.4%+4.4%
Los Angeles Chargers0.1%11.7%+11.7%
Los Angeles Rams0.1%1.0%+0.9%
Miami Dolphins0.1%4.6%+4.5%
Minnesota Vikings0.1%8.3%+8.2%
New England Patriots0.1%8.3%+8.3%
New Orleans Saints0.1%4.6%+4.5%
New York Giants0.1%4.4%+4.3%
Pittsburgh Steelers0.1%4.5%+4.5%
Seattle Seahawks0.1%2.4%+2.4%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers0.1%10.0%+9.9%
Tennessee Titans0.1%0.3%+0.2%
Washington Commanders0.1%7.6%+7.5%

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Aug 30, 2026

  • 12:34 PM
    GAGaditima
    $0.00

    Bought 100 Yes for Will Maxx Crosby play for San Francisco 49ers next? at 0

  • 09:30 AM
    AKakko123
    $0.00

    Sold 79.13 Yes for Will Maxx Crosby play for San Francisco 49ers next? at 0

  • 09:08 AM
    0X0x806F374fCa06CA7C499C232f64804A14b06f707F-1733306667262
    $19.08

    Bought 19.07625 No for Will Maxx Crosby play for Jacksonville Jaguars next? at 1

  • 08:15 AM
    PPPPMT
    $1.65

    Sold 33 Yes for Will Maxx Crosby play for Dallas Cowboys next? at 0.05

  • 05:05 AM
    WEwebb50008
    $10.03

    Bought 10.449302 Yes for Will Maxx Crosby play for Las Vegas Raiders next? at 0.96

  • 03:58 AM
    0X0x79a185D3c116f7E80E97ce164329003fe87D9371-1733943358007
    $14.06

    Bought 14.056 No for Will Maxx Crosby play for Jacksonville Jaguars next? at 1

  • 01:40 AM
    TEtest-account3
    $46.64

    Bought 46.636 No for Will Maxx Crosby play for Tennessee Titans next? at 1

  • 01:40 AM
    TEtest-account3
    $46.64

    Bought 46.643 No for Will Maxx Crosby play for San Francisco 49ers next? at 1

  • 01:40 AM
    TEtest-account3
    $46.64

    Bought 46.639666 No for Will Maxx Crosby play for Philadelphia Eagles next? at 1

  • 01:40 AM
    TEtest-account3
    $46.17

    Bought 46.6363 No for Will Maxx Crosby play for New York Jets next? at 0.99

  • 01:40 AM
    TEtest-account3
    $46.64

    Bought 46.636 No for Will Maxx Crosby play for Los Angeles Rams next? at 1

  • 01:40 AM
    ——
    $45.24

    Bought 46.635677 Yes for Will Maxx Crosby play for Las Vegas Raiders next? at 0.97

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

A51
0xa5ef…2966
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RA2
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LE3
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TO4
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GA5
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WH6
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2B7
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+$204.94
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Positions
NoYesYes+27
BA8
BabyGroot
Event PnL
+$7.08
Volume
$7,075.10
Positions
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常見問題

目前市場對「Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026?」的共識是什麼？

截至最新更新，Las Vegas Raiders 以 93.5% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 Dallas Cowboys（2.9%），以及 New York Jets（1%）。該市場總成交量已達 $6.4M，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

AI 公允價值與即時市場交易價值有何不同？

即時市場交易價值反映的是公眾情緒、訂單簿動能與投機資金。我們的 AI 公允價值則由量化模型獨立計算，剔除情緒炒作、專注底層數據。兩者出現顯著背離時即形成 EV 差，提示市場對某個結果可能存在錯誤定價。

目前哪個結果的期望值（EV）最高？

最新一輪測算顯示，Baltimore Ravens 是最顯著的錯誤定價。市場對其隱含機率僅給到 0.1%，而我們的 AI 測算其公允價值為 16.8%——形成 +16.7% 的期望值差，是該市場中最具價值的標的。

市場共識是否對某個結果反應過度？

是的——資料顯示市場對 Las Vegas Raiders 存在明顯的反應過度。人群把其即時交易價值推高至 93.5%，但我們的公允價值評估認為其真實機率僅為 73.3%，形成 -20.2% 的負 EV 差，表明該合約被高估。

長尾資料中是否藏有高價值的黑馬選項？

當然有。除了頭部結果之外，我們的模型在排名靠後的選項中發現了被低估的潛力。Arizona Cardinals 擁有 +16.1% 的正 EV 差，Cleveland Browns 則為 +15.1%。儘管量化層面更有支撐，這些合約仍被即時訂單簿低估。

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