Victoria Legislative Council Election Winner

根據「Victoria Legislative Council Election Winner」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Labor 以壓倒性的 4,900% 獲勝機率主導市場；Liberal–National 以 4,200% 位居第二，Greens 以 3,500% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Labor (4,900%)：Labor 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 4,900¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Liberal–National (4,200%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Liberal–National 保持著 4,200% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 4,200¢。
• Greens (3,500%)：以 3,500% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Greens 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 One Nation (3,500%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 One Nation 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.

This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Council (Victoria's upper house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all Legislative Council seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, including members elected from joint Liberal–National groups, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.

Each Legislative Council seat will be attributed to the party under whose name the elected candidate, or the elected candidate's group, appeared on the ballot paper.

Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the total number of Legislative Council seats won across all eight electoral regions. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of formal first-preference votes received in the Legislative Council election across all eight electoral regions, counting both above-the-line votes for the party's group and below-the-line first-preference votes for its candidates, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, including the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).