US Tornadoes in October 2026

根據「US Tornadoes in October 2026」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Under 20 以壓倒性的 5,000% 獲勝機率主導市場；20 - 34 以 5,000% 位居第二，35 - 59 以 5,000% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Under 20 (5,000%)：Under 20 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 5,000¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• 20 - 34 (5,000%)：作為最可行的替代選項，20 - 34 保持著 5,000% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 5,000¢。
• 35 - 59 (5,000%)：以 5,000% 的機率位列第三，市場對 35 - 59 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 60 - 89 (5,000%)，以及 90 or more (5,000%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 60 - 89 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).

Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.

The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.

As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on November 11, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.

If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.

The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.

If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.