UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)
核心摘要
根據「UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前，Fight won by KO/TKO? 以壓倒性的 41% 獲勝機率主導市場；Fight won by submission? 以 34.5% 位居第二，Fight won by decision? 以 26% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $199.3K，反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：
🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者
- Fight won by KO/TKO? (41%)：Fight won by KO/TKO? 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 41¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $2.2K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者
- Fight won by submission? (34.5%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Fight won by submission? 保持著 34.5% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 35¢。
- Fight won by decision? (26%)：以 26% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Fight won by decision? 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。
🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）
在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：
- 替代選項：包括 Tsarukyan to win by KO/TKO? (25.5%)、Fight to Go the Distance? (22.5%)，以及 Ruffy to win by KO/TKO? (19.5%)。
- 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Tsarukyan in Round 2 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes（成本） | 買入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fight won by KO/TKO? | 41.0% | $2.2K | 41¢ | 59¢ |
| 2 | Fight won by submission? | 34.5% | $496 | 35¢ | 66¢ |
| 3 | Fight won by decision? | 26.0% | $39 | 26¢ | 74¢ |
| 4 | Tsarukyan to win by KO/TKO? | 25.5% | $2.3K | 26¢ | 75¢ |
| 5 | Fight to Go the Distance? | 22.5% | $439 | 23¢ | 78¢ |
| 6 | Ruffy to win by KO/TKO? | 19.5% | $934 | 20¢ | 81¢ |
| 7 | Tsarukyan in Round 2 | 16.5% | $391 | 17¢ | 84¢ |
| 8 | Ruffy in Round 3 | 4.5% | $635 | 5¢ | 96¢ |
| 9 | Ruffy in Round 4 | 4.5% | $625 | 5¢ | 96¢ |
| 10 | Ruffy in Round 5 | 4.5% | $2.2K | 5¢ | 96¢ |
裁決規則
This market will resolve to "Arman Tsarukyan" if Arman Tsarukyan is officially declared the winner of the fight against Mauricio Ruffy at UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2, scheduled for September 19, 2026.
It will resolve to "Mauricio Ruffy" if Mauricio Ruffy is officially declared the winner.
If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 3, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
AI 估值分析：發現市場錯誤定價與 EV 差
人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。
將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。
頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會
根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：
- 最被高估的結果：Fight won by submission? 當前交易價為 34.5%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 26.5%，形成 -8% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
- 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 Tsarukyan in Round 2 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 16.5% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 55.3%——形成可觀的 +38.8% EV 差。
- 被忽視的黑馬：其他值得注意的偏離包括 Fight won by decision?（EV 差：+17.1%）以及 Ruffy to win by KO/TKO?（EV 差：+1.7%）。儘管我們的預測模型給予更強的統計支撐，這些長尾機會仍被即時訂單簿大幅低估。
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 41.0% | 63.4% | +22.4% |
| Fight won by submission? | 34.5% | 26.5% | -8.0% |
| Fight won by decision? | 26.0% | 43.1% | +17.1% |
| Tsarukyan to win by KO/TKO? | 25.5% | 24.6% | -0.9% |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 22.5% | 22.6% | +0.1% |
| Ruffy to win by KO/TKO? | 19.5% | 21.2% | +1.7% |
| Tsarukyan in Round 2Best EV | 16.5% | 55.3% | +38.8% |
| Ruffy in Round 3 | 4.5% | 1.0% | -3.5% |
| Ruffy in Round 4 | 4.5% | 1.0% | -3.5% |
| Ruffy in Round 5 | 4.5% | 1.0% | -3.5% |
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Sep 19, 2026
- 08:55 AMNEneutralwave23$18.23
Bought 67.518519 Mauricio Ruffy for UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.27
- 08:54 AMNEneutralwave23$169.55
Bought 627.962963 Mauricio Ruffy for UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.27
- 08:53 AMNEneutralwave23$179.41
Bought 664.481482 Mauricio Ruffy for UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.27
- 08:53 AMSTstudio21$100.00
Bought 135.135134 Arman Tsarukyan for UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.74
- 08:48 AMRERevenantsbrooch$30.00
Bought 40.540538 Arman Tsarukyan for UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.74
- 08:47 AMNOnometalife$54.71
Bought 202.62963 Mauricio Ruffy for UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.27
- 08:46 AMRERevenantsbrooch$9.94
Bought 35.517242 Yes for Will Arman Tsarukyan win by KO or TKO? at 0.28
- 08:43 AMSKSkskskskll$2,917.27
Sold 11220.28 Mauricio Ruffy for UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.26
- 08:42 AMSHShhhekel$4.26
Bought 15.777778 Mauricio Ruffy for UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.27
- 08:33 AMTHThemezz$2.00
Bought 7.407408 Mauricio Ruffy for UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.27
- 08:29 AMNONockyimmortal$56.70
Bought 210 Mauricio Ruffy for UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.27
- 08:22 AMTUTupav$5.00
Bought 6.756757 Arman Tsarukyan for UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.74
正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包
常見問題
目前市場對「UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)」的共識是什麼？
截至最新更新，Fight won by KO/TKO? 以 41% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 Fight won by submission?（34.5%），以及 Fight won by decision?（26%）。該市場總成交量已達 $199.3K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。
AI 公允價值與即時市場交易價值有何不同？
即時市場交易價值反映的是公眾情緒、訂單簿動能與投機資金。我們的 AI 公允價值則由量化模型獨立計算，剔除情緒炒作、專注底層數據。兩者出現顯著背離時即形成 EV 差，提示市場對某個結果可能存在錯誤定價。
目前哪個結果的期望值（EV）最高？
最新一輪測算顯示，Tsarukyan in Round 2 是最顯著的錯誤定價。市場對其隱含機率僅給到 16.5%，而我們的 AI 測算其公允價值為 55.3%——形成 +38.8% 的期望值差，是該市場中最具價值的標的。
市場共識是否對某個結果反應過度？
是的——資料顯示市場對 Fight won by submission? 存在明顯的反應過度。人群把其即時交易價值推高至 34.5%，但我們的公允價值評估認為其真實機率僅為 26.5%，形成 -8% 的負 EV 差，表明該合約被高估。
長尾資料中是否藏有高價值的黑馬選項？
當然有。除了頭部結果之外，我們的模型在排名靠後的選項中發現了被低估的潛力。Fight won by decision? 擁有 +17.1% 的正 EV 差，Ruffy to win by KO/TKO? 則為 +1.7%。儘管量化層面更有支撐，這些合約仍被即時訂單簿低估。