S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 1?

根據「S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on October 1?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Up 以壓倒性的 9,995% 獲勝機率主導市場；Down 以 5% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 $270.3K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Up (9,995%)：Up 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 9,995¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Down (5%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Down 保持著 5% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 5¢。

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on October 1 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on October 1 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.

E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.

If the two prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.

If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official open/close price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If the previous trading day has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Open/Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices".

US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks

EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea

ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia