
Pro Football: Sam Darnold 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Yards
核心摘要
根據「Pro Football: Sam Darnold 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Yards」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前,3,199.5+ passing yards 以壓倒性的 7,350% 獲勝機率主導市場;3,449.5+ passing yards 以 5,500% 位居第二,3,949.5+ passing yards 以 2,900% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $8.3K,反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:
🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者
- 3,199.5+ passing yards (7,350%):3,199.5+ passing yards 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 7,350¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $2.7K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯隊:主要挑戰者
- 3,449.5+ passing yards (5,500%):作為最可行的替代選項,3,449.5+ passing yards 保持著 5,500% 的成真機率,其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 5,500¢。
- 3,949.5+ passing yards (2,900%):以 2,900% 的機率位列第三,市場對 3,949.5+ passing yards 持謹慎懷疑態度,除非勢頭轉變,否則視其為外圍黑馬。
🥉 第三梯隊:長尾選項(合計約 0%)
在前三名之外,還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低,但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖:
- 替代選項:包括 3,699.5+ passing yards (2,650%),以及 4,199.5+ passing yards (650%)。
- 投機成交:儘管統計機率偏低,像 3,699.5+ passing yards 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes(成本) | 買入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3,199.5+ passing yards | 7350.0% | $2.7K | 7350¢ | -7250¢ |
| 2 | 3,449.5+ passing yards | 5500.0% | $3.2K | 5500¢ | -5400¢ |
| 3 | 3,949.5+ passing yards | 2900.0% | $582 | 2900¢ | -2800¢ |
| 4 | 3,699.5+ passing yards | 2650.0% | $1.7K | 2650¢ | -2550¢ |
| 5 | 4,199.5+ passing yards | 650.0% | $194 | 650¢ | -550¢ |
裁決規則
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of passing yards Sam Darnold records during the 2026-27 NFL regular season equals or exceeds the listed number. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Sam Darnold does not play in the 2026-27 NFL regular season for any reason, this market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed games.
If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined how many passing yards Sam Darnold recorded within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "50-50".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
常見問題
目前市場對「Pro Football: Sam Darnold 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Yards」的共識是什麼?
截至最新更新,3,199.5+ passing yards 以 7,350% 的獲勝機率領跑,其次是 3,449.5+ passing yards(5,500%),以及 3,949.5+ passing yards(2,900%)。該市場總成交量已達 $8.3K,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。
