Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%?

根據「Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Under 以壓倒性的 9,795% 獲勝機率主導市場；Over 以 205% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 $32.4K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Under (9,795%)：Under 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 9,795¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Over (205%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Over 保持著 205% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 205¢。

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.

This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.

This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).