Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share?

根據「Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，42-45% 以壓倒性的 4,050% 獲勝機率主導市場；39-42% 以 3,850% 位居第二，<39% 以 1,500% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $33.7K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• 42-45% (4,050%)：42-45% 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 4,050¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $12.0K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• 39-42% (3,850%)：作為最可行的替代選項，39-42% 保持著 3,850% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 3,850¢。
• <39% (1,500%)：以 1,500% 的機率位列第三，市場對 <39% 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 45%+ (950%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 45%+ 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).