Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on October 8?
核心摘要
根據「Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on October 8?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前，Up 以壓倒性的 5,000% 獲勝機率主導市場；Down 以 5,000% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：
🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者
- Up (5,000%)：Up 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 5,000¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。
🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者
- Down (5,000%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Down 保持著 5,000% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 5,000¢。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes（成本） | 買入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Up | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 2 | Down | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
裁決規則
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official Nikkei 225 Index closing price for Nikkei 225 (NIK) on Thursday, October 8, 2026 is higher than the official Nikkei 225 Index closing price for NIK on the most recent prior trading day.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the official Nikkei 225 Index closing price for Nikkei 225 (NIK) on Thursday, October 8, 2026 is lower than the official Nikkei 225 Index closing price for NIK on the most recent prior trading day.
E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.
If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
If NIK does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.
If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by Nikkei 225 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices".
US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks
EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea
ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
常見問題
目前市場對「Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on October 8?」的共識是什麼？
截至最新更新，Up 以 5,000% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 Down（5,000%）。該市場總成交量已達 —，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。