Next Claude Opus released by...?

根據「Next Claude Opus released by...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，December 31 以壓倒性的 4,650% 獲勝機率主導市場；October 31 以 4,600% 位居第二，August 31 以 4,550% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• December 31 (4,650%)：December 31 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 4,650¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• October 31 (4,600%)：作為最可行的替代選項，October 31 保持著 4,600% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 4,600¢。
• August 31 (4,550%)：以 4,550% 的機率位列第三，市場對 August 31 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.

The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.