NCAA Football: Team to be Ranked #1 in the Week 6 AP Poll

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2026年10月12日
Active
機率趨勢
No 50.5%
Yes 49.5%

核心摘要

根據「NCAA Football: Team to be Ranked #1 in the Week 6 AP Poll」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前,Texas 以壓倒性的 4,950% 獲勝機率主導市場;Georgia 以 4,950% 位居第二,Notre Dame 以 4,950% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —,反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:

🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者

  • Texas (4,950%):Texas 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 4,950¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊:主要挑戰者

  • Georgia (4,950%):作為最可行的替代選項,Georgia 保持著 4,950% 的成真機率,其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 4,950¢。
  • Notre Dame (4,950%):以 4,950% 的機率位列第三,市場對 Notre Dame 持謹慎懷疑態度,除非勢頭轉變,否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊:長尾選項(合計約 0%)

在前三名之外,還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低,但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖:

  • 替代選項:包括 Miami (FL) (4,950%)、Ohio St. (4,950%),以及 Indiana (4,950%)。
  • 投機成交:儘管統計機率偏低,像 Alabama 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes(成本)買入 No(成本)
1Texas4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
2Georgia4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
3Notre Dame4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
4Miami (FL)4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
5Ohio St.4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
6Indiana4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
7Alabama4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
8Florida4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
9Ole Miss4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
10BYU4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
11LSU4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
12Texas Tech4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
13Utah4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
14Iowa4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
15Oregon4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
16Mississippi St.4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
17Tennessee4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
18USC4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
19Oklahoma St.4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
20Houston4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
21SMU4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
22Boise St.4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
23UCLA4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
24Kentucky4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
25Missouri4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
26Arizona4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
27Arizona St.4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
28Auburn4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
29Baylor4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
30California4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
31Florida St.4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
32Georgia Tech4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
33Kansas St.4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
34Louisville4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
35Michigan4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
36Navy4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
37TCU4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
38Tulane4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
39Virginia4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
40Vanderbilt4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢

裁決規則

This market will resolve to the team ranked #1 (first position) of the Week 6 Associated Press (AP) Top 25 college football poll for the 2026 season.

The "Week 6 AP poll" refers to the AP Top 25 poll released in Week 6 of the 2026 regular season, expected on October 11, 2026. The preseason poll does not count.

If the team ranked #1 is not among the listed teams, this market will resolve to "Other".

If the AP does not release a Week 6 poll for the 2026 season by October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, resolution will be based on the first official in-season AP Top 25 poll published thereafter.

The primary resolution source will be the official Associated Press Top 25 college football poll (https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

常見問題

目前市場對「NCAA Football: Team to be Ranked #1 in the Week 6 AP Poll」的共識是什麼?

截至最新更新,Texas 以 4,950% 的獲勝機率領跑,其次是 Georgia(4,950%),以及 Notre Dame(4,950%)。該市場總成交量已達 —,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

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