
NCAA Football: Team to be Ranked #1 in the Week 6 AP Poll
核心摘要
根據「NCAA Football: Team to be Ranked #1 in the Week 6 AP Poll」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前,Texas 以壓倒性的 4,950% 獲勝機率主導市場;Georgia 以 4,950% 位居第二,Notre Dame 以 4,950% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —,反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:
🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者
- Texas (4,950%):Texas 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 4,950¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。
🥈 第二梯隊:主要挑戰者
- Georgia (4,950%):作為最可行的替代選項,Georgia 保持著 4,950% 的成真機率,其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 4,950¢。
- Notre Dame (4,950%):以 4,950% 的機率位列第三,市場對 Notre Dame 持謹慎懷疑態度,除非勢頭轉變,否則視其為外圍黑馬。
🥉 第三梯隊:長尾選項(合計約 0%)
在前三名之外,還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低,但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖:
- 替代選項:包括 Miami (FL) (4,950%)、Ohio St. (4,950%),以及 Indiana (4,950%)。
- 投機成交:儘管統計機率偏低,像 Alabama 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes(成本) | 買入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 2 | Georgia | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 3 | Notre Dame | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 4 | Miami (FL) | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 5 | Ohio St. | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 6 | Indiana | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 7 | Alabama | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 8 | Florida | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 9 | Ole Miss | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 10 | BYU | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 11 | LSU | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 12 | Texas Tech | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 13 | Utah | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 14 | Iowa | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 15 | Oregon | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 16 | Mississippi St. | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 17 | Tennessee | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 18 | USC | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 19 | Oklahoma St. | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 20 | Houston | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 21 | SMU | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 22 | Boise St. | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 23 | UCLA | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 24 | Kentucky | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 25 | Missouri | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 26 | Arizona | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 27 | Arizona St. | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 28 | Auburn | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 29 | Baylor | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 30 | California | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 31 | Florida St. | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 32 | Georgia Tech | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 33 | Kansas St. | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 34 | Louisville | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 35 | Michigan | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 36 | Navy | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 37 | TCU | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 38 | Tulane | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 39 | Virginia | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 40 | Vanderbilt | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
裁決規則
This market will resolve to the team ranked #1 (first position) of the Week 6 Associated Press (AP) Top 25 college football poll for the 2026 season.
The "Week 6 AP poll" refers to the AP Top 25 poll released in Week 6 of the 2026 regular season, expected on October 11, 2026. The preseason poll does not count.
If the team ranked #1 is not among the listed teams, this market will resolve to "Other".
If the AP does not release a Week 6 poll for the 2026 season by October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, resolution will be based on the first official in-season AP Top 25 poll published thereafter.
The primary resolution source will be the official Associated Press Top 25 college football poll (https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
常見問題
目前市場對「NCAA Football: Team to be Ranked #1 in the Week 6 AP Poll」的共識是什麼?
截至最新更新,Texas 以 4,950% 的獲勝機率領跑,其次是 Georgia(4,950%),以及 Notre Dame(4,950%)。該市場總成交量已達 —,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。
