
NBA: Kawhi Leonard Next Team
核心摘要
根據「NBA: Kawhi Leonard Next Team」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前,Toronto Raptors 以壓倒性的 9,625% 獲勝機率主導市場;Los Angeles Clippers 以 150% 位居第二,Golden State Warriors 以 15% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $318.6K,反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:
🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者
- Toronto Raptors (9,625%):Toronto Raptors 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 9,625¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $86.3K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯隊:主要挑戰者
- Los Angeles Clippers (150%):作為最可行的替代選項,Los Angeles Clippers 保持著 150% 的成真機率,其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 150¢。
- Golden State Warriors (15%):以 15% 的機率位列第三,市場對 Golden State Warriors 持謹慎懷疑態度,除非勢頭轉變,否則視其為外圍黑馬。
🥉 第三梯隊:長尾選項(合計約 0%)
在前三名之外,還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低,但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖:
- 替代選項:包括 Atlanta Hawks (5%)、Boston Celtics (5%),以及 Brooklyn Nets (5%)。
- 投機成交:儘管統計機率偏低,像 Charlotte Hornets 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes(成本) | 買入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toronto Raptors | 9625.0% | $86.3K | 9625¢ | -9525¢ |
| 2 | Los Angeles Clippers | 150.0% | $38.4K | 150¢ | -50¢ |
| 3 | Golden State Warriors | 15.0% | $117.2K | 15¢ | 85¢ |
| 4 | Atlanta Hawks | 5.0% | $1.9K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 5 | Boston Celtics | 5.0% | $2.9K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 6 | Brooklyn Nets | 5.0% | $1.9K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 7 | Charlotte Hornets | 5.0% | $2.9K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 8 | Chicago Bulls | 5.0% | $3.1K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 9 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 5.0% | $1.8K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 10 | Dallas Mavericks | 5.0% | $2.8K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 11 | Denver Nuggets | 5.0% | $4.1K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 12 | Detroit Pistons | 5.0% | $5.2K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 13 | Houston Rockets | 5.0% | $1.9K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 14 | Indiana Pacers | 5.0% | $2.8K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 15 | Los Angeles Lakers | 5.0% | $1.6K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 16 | Memphis Grizzlies | 5.0% | $2.6K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 17 | Miami Heat | 5.0% | $2.7K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 18 | Milwaukee Bucks | 5.0% | $2.7K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 19 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 5.0% | $2.7K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 20 | New Orleans Pelicans | 5.0% | $1.7K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 21 | New York Knicks | 5.0% | $2.8K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 22 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 5.0% | $3.2K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 23 | Orlando Magic | 5.0% | $2.7K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 24 | Philadelphia 76ers | 5.0% | $2.8K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 25 | Phoenix Suns | 5.0% | $1.6K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 26 | Portland Trail Blazers | 5.0% | $2.6K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 27 | Sacramento Kings | 5.0% | $2.8K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 28 | San Antonio Spurs | 5.0% | $7.8K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 29 | Utah Jazz | 5.0% | $1.8K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 30 | Washington Wizards | 5.0% | $3.2K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
裁決規則
This market will resolve to the next team Kawhi Leonard officially joins by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If Kawhi Leonard does not officially join a new team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Los Angeles Clippers”.
If Kawhi Leonard joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If Kawhi Leonard retires or is not under contract with any professional team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
An official acquisition announcement prior to the market’s close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the Los Angeles Clippers and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Sep 8, 2026
- 12:45 AMMAmacrosteaks$6.96
Bought 174 No for Will Kawhi play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27? at 0.04
Sep 7, 2026
- 09:05 PMTHthenewpontif$34.98
Sold 36.44 Yes for Will Kawhi play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27? at 0.96
- 08:19 AMSUsuntori$1.62
Bought 54.074074 Yes for Will Kawhi play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27? at 0.03
- 06:27 AMMAmacrosteaks$2.71
Bought 90.352903 No for Will Kawhi play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27? at 0.03
- 01:08 AMMAmacrosteaks$1.58
Bought 52.785881 No for Will Kawhi play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27? at 0.03
Sep 6, 2026
- 11:06 PMJIjillers$99.96
Bought 102 Yes for Will Kawhi play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27? at 0.98
- 12:30 PMXYXyzeric$0.01
Sold 0.4 No for Will Kawhi play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27? at 0.02
- 02:49 AMILilovecarrots$12.13
Sold 12.5 Yes for Will Kawhi play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27? at 0.97
Sep 5, 2026
- 07:35 PMDIDistant-Glass$217.19
Bought 221.62 Yes for Will Kawhi play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27? at 0.98
- 07:35 PMDIDistant-Glass$28.76
Bought 29.35 Yes for Will Kawhi play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27? at 0.98
- 09:53 AMOLOlma$0.27
Sold 9 No for Will Kawhi play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27? at 0.03
Sep 4, 2026
- 07:57 PMPEpengu1n$0.10
Bought 0.11 Yes for Will Kawhi play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27? at 0.94
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常見問題
目前市場對「NBA: Kawhi Leonard Next Team」的共識是什麼?
截至最新更新,Toronto Raptors 以 9,625% 的獲勝機率領跑,其次是 Los Angeles Clippers(150%),以及 Golden State Warriors(15%)。該市場總成交量已達 $318.6K,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。
