Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
核心摘要
根據「Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前,Spread -1.5 以壓倒性的 9,350% 獲勝機率主導市場;Spread -2.5 以 8,550% 位居第二,Toronto Blue Jays O/U 1.5 以 5,050% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $520.6K,反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:
🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者
- Spread -1.5 (9,350%):Spread -1.5 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 9,350¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $16.9K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯隊:主要挑戰者
- Spread -2.5 (8,550%):作為最可行的替代選項,Spread -2.5 保持著 8,550% 的成真機率,其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 8,550¢。
- Toronto Blue Jays O/U 1.5 (5,050%):以 5,050% 的機率位列第三,市場對 Toronto Blue Jays O/U 1.5 持謹慎懷疑態度,除非勢頭轉變,否則視其為外圍黑馬。
🥉 第三梯隊:長尾選項(合計約 0%)
在前三名之外,還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低,但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖:
- 替代選項:包括 Toronto Blue Jays O/U 3.5 (5,000%)、Baltimore Orioles O/U 5.5 (5,000%),以及 Extra Innings (4,950%)。
- 投機成交:儘管統計機率偏低,像 Toronto Blue Jays O/U 2.5 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes(成本) | 買入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spread -1.5 | 9350.0% | $16.9K | 9350¢ | -9250¢ |
| 2 | Spread -2.5 | 8550.0% | $548 | 8550¢ | -8450¢ |
| 3 | Toronto Blue Jays O/U 1.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 4 | Toronto Blue Jays O/U 3.5 | 5000.0% | $86 | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 5 | Baltimore Orioles O/U 5.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 6 | Extra Innings | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 7 | Toronto Blue Jays O/U 2.5 | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 8 | Toronto Blue Jays O/U 4.5 | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 9 | Baltimore Orioles O/U 4.5 | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 10 | Toronto Blue Jays O/U 5.5 | 2400.0% | — | 2400¢ | -2300¢ |
| 11 | O/U 7.5 | 950.0% | $111.8K | 950¢ | -850¢ |
| 12 | O/U 8.5 | 650.0% | $37.4K | 650¢ | -550¢ |
| 13 | O/U 9.5 | 400.0% | $3.1K | 400¢ | -300¢ |
| 14 | Spread -2.5 | 245.0% | $548 | 245¢ | -145¢ |
| 15 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles | 235.0% | $334.4K | 235¢ | -135¢ |
| 16 | Spread -1.5 | 200.0% | $16.9K | 200¢ | -100¢ |
裁決規則
In the upcoming MLB game between the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles, scheduled for September 23 at 6:35PM ET:
This market will resolve to "Toronto Blue Jays" if the Toronto Blue Jays win the game.
This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game.
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.
The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Sep 24, 2026
- 12:05 AMHOHomeRunHazard$1.40
Bought 5 Toronto Blue Jays for Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) at 0.28
- 12:05 AM0X0x546a5166295433dddA571cdE5d077Fc46abD1988-1770842732162$1.50
Bought 2.054792 Baltimore Orioles for Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) at 0.73
- 12:03 AM——$10.00
Bought 12.658228 Baltimore Orioles for Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) at 0.79
- 12:03 AM0X0x546a5166295433dddA571cdE5d077Fc46abD1988-1770842732162$1.84
Bought 2.044445 Baltimore Orioles for Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) at 0.9
Sep 23, 2026
- 11:59 PMCAcatbig$6.00
Bought 35.294118 Toronto Blue Jays for Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) at 0.17
- 11:56 PMOXOxarf$2.00
Bought 2.777778 Under for Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 at 0.72
- 11:56 PMFLFlaznorp$490.26
Bought 680.916667 Under for Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 at 0.72
- 11:56 PMARArthurKim$1.42
Sold 1.49 Baltimore Orioles for Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) at 0.95
- 11:54 PMOXOxarf$2.00
Bought 2.22222 Baltimore Orioles for Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) at 0.9
- 11:54 PMFLFlaznorp$406.62
Bought 451.8 Baltimore Orioles for Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) at 0.9
- 11:51 PMNUNUTBUSTER42069$139.64
Sold 186.18 Baltimore Orioles for Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) at 0.75
- 11:48 PMDIdips.$8.45
Bought 65 Toronto Blue Jays for Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) at 0.13
正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包
常見問題
目前市場對「Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles」的共識是什麼?
截至最新更新,Spread -1.5 以 9,350% 的獲勝機率領跑,其次是 Spread -2.5(8,550%),以及 Toronto Blue Jays O/U 1.5(5,050%)。該市場總成交量已達 $520.6K,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。
