MLB: Strikeouts Leader - Pitcher

$3M Vol
2026年10月16日
Active
機率趨勢
Jacob Misiorowski 51.4%
Jesús Luzardo 9.6%
Dylan Cease 6.6%
Cam Schlittler 4.1%
Sonny Gray 1.8%

核心摘要

根據「MLB: Strikeouts Leader - Pitcher」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前,Jacob Misiorowski 以壓倒性的 5,300% 獲勝機率主導市場;Cam Schlittler 以 410% 位居第二,Jesús Luzardo 以 400% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $3M,反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:

🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者

  • Jacob Misiorowski (5,300%):Jacob Misiorowski 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 5,300¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $10.4K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊:主要挑戰者

  • Cam Schlittler (410%):作為最可行的替代選項,Cam Schlittler 保持著 410% 的成真機率,其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 410¢。
  • Jesús Luzardo (400%):以 400% 的機率位列第三,市場對 Jesús Luzardo 持謹慎懷疑態度,除非勢頭轉變,否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊:長尾選項(合計約 0%)

在前三名之外,還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低,但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖:

  • 替代選項:包括 Dylan Cease (310%)、Sonny Gray (185%),以及 Cristopher Sánchez (155%)。
  • 投機成交:儘管統計機率偏低,像 Max Fried 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes(成本)買入 No(成本)
1Jacob Misiorowski5300.0%$10.4K5300¢-5200¢
2Cam Schlittler410.0%$1.5K410¢-310¢
3Jesús Luzardo400.0%$3.1K400¢-300¢
4Dylan Cease310.0%$2.3K310¢-210¢
5Sonny Gray185.0%$1.6K185¢-85¢
6Cristopher Sánchez155.0%$2.6K155¢-55¢
7Max Fried150.0%$1.1K150¢-50¢
8Logan Webb140.0%$584.3K140¢-40¢
9Reid Detmers80.0%$52.2K80¢20¢
10Tarik Skubal60.0%$1.9K60¢40¢
11Kevin Gausman55.0%$929.8K55¢45¢
12Carlos Rodón45.0%$555.9K45¢55¢
13Paul Skenes20.0%$5.8K20¢80¢
14Logan Gilbert15.0%$34.0K15¢85¢
15Garrett Crochet5.0%$61495¢
16Hunter Brown5.0%$34.0K95¢
17Freddy Peralta5.0%$69795¢
18Yoshinobu Yamamoto5.0%$54995¢
19Bryan Woo5.0%$49595¢
20Zack Wheeler5.0%$56695¢
21Joe Ryan5.0%$61095¢
22Shota Imanaga5.0%$16.4K95¢
23Taj Bradley5.0%$1.1K95¢
24José Soriano5.0%$40595¢
25Nolan McLean5.0%$47995¢
26Emerson Hancock5.0%$20.7K95¢
27Hunter Greene5.0%$30.0K95¢
28Shohei Ohtani5.0%$697.2K95¢

裁決規則

This market will resolve according to the pitcher who records the most strikeouts among pitchers during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the pitcher that records fewer innings pitched during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that records the lower ERA during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that walked fewer batters during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the pitcher whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

A51
0xa5ef…2966
事件損益
+$7,048.59
成交量
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持倉數
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JO2
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持倉數
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SW3
sweetj
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-$118.90
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持倉數
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LO4
LornaPredicts
事件損益
+$24.56
成交量
$582.00
持倉數
YesNoYes+2
DU5
DuneMentat
事件損益
+$47.80
成交量
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持倉數
YesYes
CH6
chefradish
事件損益
+$8.29
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持倉數
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497
0x49F206
事件損益
+$31.18
成交量
$504.42
持倉數
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OK8
Oklmntrader
事件損益
-$79.57
成交量
$485.20
持倉數
Yes

常見問題

目前市場對「MLB: Strikeouts Leader - Pitcher」的共識是什麼?

截至最新更新,Jacob Misiorowski 以 5,300% 的獲勝機率領跑,其次是 Cam Schlittler(410%),以及 Jesús Luzardo(400%)。該市場總成交量已達 $3M,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

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