Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
核心摘要
根據「Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前,New York Mets O/U 1.5 以壓倒性的 8,950% 獲勝機率主導市場;Philadelphia Phillies O/U 1.5 以 8,750% 位居第二,1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 以 7,650% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $125.9K,反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:
🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者
- New York Mets O/U 1.5 (8,950%):New York Mets O/U 1.5 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 8,950¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。
🥈 第二梯隊:主要挑戰者
- Philadelphia Phillies O/U 1.5 (8,750%):作為最可行的替代選項,Philadelphia Phillies O/U 1.5 保持著 8,750% 的成真機率,其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 8,750¢。
- 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 (7,650%):以 7,650% 的機率位列第三,市場對 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 持謹慎懷疑態度,除非勢頭轉變,否則視其為外圍黑馬。
🥉 第三梯隊:長尾選項(合計約 0%)
在前三名之外,還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低,但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖:
- 替代選項:包括 New York Mets O/U 2.5 (7,400%)、Philadelphia Phillies O/U 2.5 (7,050%),以及 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 (6,350%)。
- 投機成交:儘管統計機率偏低,像 New York Mets O/U 3.5 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes(成本) | 買入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Mets O/U 1.5 | 8950.0% | — | 8950¢ | -8850¢ |
| 2 | Philadelphia Phillies O/U 1.5 | 8750.0% | — | 8750¢ | -8650¢ |
| 3 | 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 7650.0% | $4 | 7650¢ | -7550¢ |
| 4 | New York Mets O/U 2.5 | 7400.0% | — | 7400¢ | -7300¢ |
| 5 | Philadelphia Phillies O/U 2.5 | 7050.0% | — | 7050¢ | -6950¢ |
| 6 | 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 6350.0% | — | 6350¢ | -6250¢ |
| 7 | New York Mets O/U 3.5 | 5900.0% | — | 5900¢ | -5800¢ |
| 8 | O/U 7.5 | 5850.0% | $258 | 5850¢ | -5750¢ |
| 9 | Philadelphia Phillies O/U 3.5 | 5650.0% | $91 | 5650¢ | -5550¢ |
| 10 | O/U 8.5 | 5050.0% | $2.9K | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 11 | NRFI | 4950.0% | $289 | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 12 | 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 13 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets | 4650.0% | $121.4K | 4650¢ | -4550¢ |
| 14 | New York Mets O/U 4.5 | 4500.0% | — | 4500¢ | -4400¢ |
| 15 | Philadelphia Phillies O/U 4.5 | 4400.0% | — | 4400¢ | -4300¢ |
| 16 | O/U 9.5 | 4050.0% | $204 | 4050¢ | -3950¢ |
| 17 | 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 3900.0% | — | 3900¢ | -3800¢ |
| 18 | Spread -1.5 | 3550.0% | $122 | 3550¢ | -3450¢ |
| 19 | Spread -1.5 | 3550.0% | $122 | 3550¢ | -3450¢ |
| 20 | New York Mets O/U 5.5 | 3300.0% | — | 3300¢ | -3200¢ |
| 21 | Philadelphia Phillies O/U 5.5 | 3250.0% | — | 3250¢ | -3150¢ |
| 22 | 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 3100.0% | — | 3100¢ | -3000¢ |
| 23 | 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 2750.0% | — | 2750¢ | -2650¢ |
| 24 | 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 2750.0% | — | 2750¢ | -2650¢ |
| 25 | Spread -2.5 | 2650.0% | $194 | 2650¢ | -2550¢ |
| 26 | Spread -2.5 | 2550.0% | $194 | 2550¢ | -2450¢ |
| 27 | Extra Innings | 900.0% | — | 900¢ | -800¢ |
裁決規則
In the upcoming MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets, scheduled for September 18 at 7:15PM ET:
This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies win the game.
This market will resolve to "New York Mets" if the New York Mets win the game.
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.
The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Sep 18, 2026
- 10:13 PMALAltcom$2.92
Bought 5.41 New York Mets for Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets at 0.54
- 10:11 PMM1M123888$5.00
Bought 9.25926 New York Mets for Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets at 0.54
- 10:11 PMCEceteris-paribus$3.00
Bought 6.382979 Philadelphia Phillies for Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets at 0.47
- 09:50 PMMAMathOnly3c$2,413.97
Bought 5136.1 Philadelphia Phillies for Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets at 0.47
- 09:47 PMGAgabron13$1.00
Bought 2.12766 Philadelphia Phillies for Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets at 0.47
- 09:46 PMALAltcom$19.48
Bought 36.07 New York Mets for Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets at 0.54
- 09:46 PMYOYortcas$4.00
Bought 8.510639 Philadelphia Phillies for Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets at 0.47
- 09:44 PMM1M123888$25.00
Bought 46.296297 New York Mets for Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets at 0.54
- 09:41 PM——$1.00
Bought 2.12766 Philadelphia Phillies for Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets at 0.47
- 09:33 PM0X0xe315130229DcF148e87555a6722BAF8770Dd3911-1769357511469$6.57
Bought 12.166667 New York Mets for Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets at 0.54
- 09:28 PM0X0xSeijuro$25.00
Bought 50 No for Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets at 0.5
- 09:28 PM0X0xSeijuro$40.00
Bought 74.074075 New York Mets for Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets at 0.54
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常見問題
目前市場對「Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets」的共識是什麼?
截至最新更新,New York Mets O/U 1.5 以 8,950% 的獲勝機率領跑,其次是 Philadelphia Phillies O/U 1.5(8,750%),以及 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5(7,650%)。該市場總成交量已達 $125.9K,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。
