Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres

$97.3K Vol
2026年10月14日
Active
機率趨勢
San Diego Padres 55.5%
Milwaukee Brewers 44.5%

核心摘要

根據「Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前,NRFI 以壓倒性的 45% 獲勝機率主導市場。該市場的下注量已達 $97.3K,反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:

🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者

  • NRFI (45%):NRFI 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 45¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $6 的成交量。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes(成本)買入 No(成本)
1NRFI45.0%$645¢55¢

裁決規則

In the upcoming MLB game between the Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres, scheduled for October 6 at 3:33AM ET:

This market will resolve to "Milwaukee Brewers" if the Milwaukee Brewers win the game.

This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game.

If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.

The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

AI 估值分析:發現市場錯誤定價與 EV 差

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場,而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布,我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比,可揭示出重大背離——即期望值(EV)差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果,而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
NRFI45.0%45.0%0.0%

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Oct 6, 2026

  • 12:34 PM
    ——
    $2.24

    Bought 7 Milwaukee Brewers for Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) at 0.32

  • 12:30 PM
    JOjorgeadrian
    $3.55

    Bought 5.144925 San Diego Padres for Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) at 0.69

  • 11:39 AM
    FIfizzwont
    $54.00

    Bought 120 Under for Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 at 0.45

  • 11:21 AM
    FOForecastication2
    $2.35

    Bought 5 Over for Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 at 0.47

  • 11:10 AM
    JCjcasino
    $219.60

    Bought 399.27 San Diego Padres for Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres at 0.55

  • 10:35 AM
    NENewsGurus
    $13.84

    Bought 30.08 Milwaukee Brewers for Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres at 0.46

  • 10:17 AM
    ——
    $8.00

    Bought 17.39 Milwaukee Brewers for Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres at 0.46

  • 10:15 AM
    ——
    $1.92

    Bought 6 Milwaukee Brewers for Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) at 0.32

  • 10:11 AM
    NInigiri99
    $9.90

    Bought 18 San Diego Padres for Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres at 0.55

  • 10:10 AM
    NInigiri99
    $48.95

    Bought 89 San Diego Padres for Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres at 0.55

  • 10:10 AM
    NInigiri99
    $9.90

    Bought 18 San Diego Padres for Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres at 0.55

  • 10:09 AM
    NInigiri99
    $9.90

    Bought 18 San Diego Padres for Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres at 0.55

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

NS1
NS13
事件損益
-$132.88
成交量
$27,870.44
持倉數
Milwaukee Brewers
NI2
nigiri99
事件損益
-$88.20
成交量
$17,644.00
持倉數
San Diego Padres
FB3
0xfB07…2542
事件損益
+$50.00
成交量
$10,000.00
持倉數
San Diego Padres
MO4
monkeymashingkeyboard
事件損益
+$40.99
成交量
$8,197.90
持倉數
Milwaukee Brewers
HO5
HomeRunHazard
事件損益
+$26.25
成交量
$5,247.12
持倉數
San Diego PadresOverSan Diego Padres+1
SI6
silentvector10
事件損益
+$10.55
成交量
$2,109.51
持倉數
Milwaukee Brewers
5B7
0x5b62…1989
事件損益
+$10.00
成交量
$2,000.00
持倉數
San Diego Padres
VE8
VeryLucky888
事件損益
+$7.52
成交量
$1,501.53
持倉數
Milwaukee BrewersSan Diego Padres

常見問題

目前市場對「Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres」的共識是什麼?

截至最新更新,NRFI 以 45% 的獲勝機率領跑。該市場總成交量已達 $97.3K,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

AI 公允價值與即時市場交易價值有何不同?

即時市場交易價值反映的是公眾情緒、訂單簿動能與投機資金。我們的 AI 公允價值則由量化模型獨立計算,剔除情緒炒作、專注底層數據。兩者出現顯著背離時即形成 EV 差,提示市場對某個結果可能存在錯誤定價。

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