MLB: Highest ABS Challenge Success Rate (Team)

$1.3M Vol
2026年10月12日
Active
機率趨勢
Cincinnati Reds 67.8%
Other 50.0%
Chicago Cubs 11.5%
Detroit Tigers 6.9%
Athletics 3.6%

核心摘要

根據「MLB: Highest ABS Challenge Success Rate (Team)」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Detroit Tigers 以壓倒性的 66% 獲勝機率主導市場；Arizona Diamondbacks 以 49.5% 位居第二，Atlanta Braves 以 49.5% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $1.3M，反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

  • Detroit Tigers (66%)：Detroit Tigers 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 66¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $153.0K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

  • Arizona Diamondbacks (49.5%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Arizona Diamondbacks 保持著 49.5% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 50¢。
  • Atlanta Braves (49.5%)：以 49.5% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Atlanta Braves 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

  • 替代選項：包括 Baltimore Orioles (49.5%)、Boston Red Sox (49.5%)，以及 Chicago Cubs (49.5%)。
  • 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Chicago White Sox 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes（成本）買入 No（成本）
1Detroit Tigers66.0%$153.0K66¢34¢
2Arizona Diamondbacks49.5%$1.3K50¢51¢
3Atlanta Braves49.5%$55550¢51¢
4Baltimore Orioles49.5%$58150¢51¢
5Boston Red Sox49.5%$40750¢51¢
6Chicago Cubs49.5%$1.5K50¢51¢
7Chicago White Sox49.5%$56750¢51¢
8Cincinnati Reds49.5%$2.1K50¢51¢
9Cleveland Guardians49.5%$50450¢51¢
10Colorado Rockies49.5%$1.3K50¢51¢
11Houston Astros49.5%$45650¢51¢
12Kansas City Royals49.5%$83650¢51¢
13Los Angeles Angels49.5%$44850¢51¢
14Los Angeles Dodgers49.5%$3.1K50¢51¢
15Miami Marlins49.5%$93.4K50¢51¢
16Milwaukee Brewers49.5%$60050¢51¢
17Minnesota Twins49.5%$51850¢51¢
18New York Mets49.5%$465.7K50¢51¢
19New York Yankees49.5%$1.4K50¢51¢
20Athletics49.5%$1.2K50¢51¢
21Philadelphia Phillies49.5%$557.6K50¢51¢
22Pittsburgh Pirates49.5%$35650¢51¢
23San Diego Padres49.5%$30050¢51¢
24San Francisco Giants49.5%$38450¢51¢
25Seattle Mariners49.5%$37450¢51¢
26St. Louis Cardinals49.5%$47350¢51¢
27Tampa Bay Rays49.5%$1.1K50¢51¢
28Texas Rangers49.5%$1.4K50¢51¢
29Toronto Blue Jays49.5%$37450¢51¢
30Washington Nationals49.5%$54550¢51¢
31Other49.5%—50¢51¢

裁決規則

This market will resolve according to the team that records the highest ABS challenge won% during the 2026 MLB Regular Season.

If two teams tie for the highest ABS challenge won%, this market will resolve in favor of the team that records more challenges won during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the team with the highest won% cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/abs); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AI 估值分析：發現市場錯誤定價與 EV 差

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

  • 最被高估的結果：Detroit Tigers 當前交易價為 66%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 13.7%，形成 -52.3% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
Detroit Tigers66.0%13.7%-52.3%
Arizona Diamondbacks49.5%26.9%-22.6%
Atlanta Braves49.5%1.0%-48.5%
Baltimore Orioles49.5%12.7%-36.8%
Boston Red Sox49.5%1.0%-48.5%
Chicago Cubs49.5%9.8%-39.8%
Chicago White Sox49.5%7.5%-42.0%
Cincinnati Reds49.5%22.3%-27.2%
Cleveland Guardians49.5%6.6%-42.9%
Colorado Rockies49.5%14.6%-34.9%
Houston Astros49.5%20.9%-28.6%
Kansas City Royals49.5%20.2%-29.3%
Los Angeles Angels49.5%1.0%-48.5%
Los Angeles Dodgers49.5%22.9%-26.6%
Miami Marlins49.5%12.3%-37.3%
Milwaukee Brewers49.5%6.8%-42.7%
Minnesota Twins49.5%1.0%-48.5%
New York Mets49.5%12.3%-37.2%
New York Yankees49.5%8.5%-41.0%
Athletics49.5%15.1%-34.4%
Philadelphia Phillies49.5%15.5%-34.0%
Pittsburgh Pirates49.5%21.7%-27.8%
San Diego Padres49.5%1.0%-48.5%
San Francisco Giants49.5%21.1%-28.4%
Seattle Mariners49.5%21.2%-28.3%
St. Louis Cardinals49.5%18.3%-31.2%
Tampa Bay Rays49.5%10.3%-39.2%
Texas Rangers49.5%18.6%-30.9%
Toronto Blue Jays49.5%7.3%-42.2%
Washington Nationals49.5%1.0%-48.5%
Other49.5%35.9%-13.6%

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Sep 6, 2026

  • 04:12 AM
    JOJonnyA
    $18.60

    Bought 20 No for Will the Detroit Tigers have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season? at 0.93

Sep 5, 2026

  • 12:44 AM
    LOlolzzzlol
    $20.40

    Sold 30 Yes for Will the Cincinnati Reds have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season? at 0.68

Sep 4, 2026

  • 09:16 PM
    LOlololol3
    $0.00

    Sold 0.32 Yes for Will the Los Angeles Dodgers have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season? at 0.01

  • 08:57 AM
    PPPPMT
    $1.92

    Sold 6 No for Will the Cincinnati Reds have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season? at 0.32

  • 03:20 AM
    JOJonnyA
    $25.88

    Sold 25.88 No for Will the Houston Astros have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season? at 1

  • 02:02 AM
    MIMiaomi666
    $6.40

    Sold 20 No for Will the Cincinnati Reds have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season? at 0.32

Sep 3, 2026

  • 03:13 AM
    NInibblemaxxing
    $1.49

    Bought 5.338077 No for Will the Cincinnati Reds have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season? at 0.28

  • 12:37 AM
    ——
    $0.73

    Sold 0.85 Yes for Will the Cincinnati Reds have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season? at 0.86

Sep 2, 2026

  • 11:48 PM
    SHshoobadooba18
    $0.73

    Sold 0.85 Yes for Will the Cincinnati Reds have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season? at 0.86

  • 11:35 PM
    DRDr.PNL
    $17.93

    Sold 20.85 Yes for Will the Cincinnati Reds have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season? at 0.86

  • 11:01 PM
    LOlolzzzlol
    $0.00

    Sold 20 Yes for Will the Washington Nationals have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season? at 0

  • 04:38 PM
    61613b668ef24D3A37417cb5756c5943cae761DA44.
    $1.68

    Sold 56 Yes for Will the Washington Nationals have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season? at 0.03

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

A51
0xa5ef…2966
事件損益
+$0.00
成交量
$5,709.00
持倉數
NoNoNo+27
612
613b668ef24D3A37417cb5756c5943cae761DA44.
事件損益
+$7.79
成交量
$2,150.40
持倉數
YesYesYes+20
LO3
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事件損益
+$25.35
成交量
$1,253.81
持倉數
YesYesYes+23
504
50cents
事件損益
+$77.76
成交量
$756.87
持倉數
YesYesYes+1
HA5
Haradwaith
事件損益
-$25.02
成交量
$568.91
持倉數
YesYesYes+2
CW6
cwc909
事件損益
-$16.95
成交量
$560.00
持倉數
YesYesYes+25
MO7
Mojito9
事件損益
-$2.44
成交量
$208.30
持倉數
NoNoYes+16
GC8
gcjames
事件損益
+$2.69
成交量
$200.00
持倉數
NoNoNo+1

常見問題

目前市場對「MLB: Highest ABS Challenge Success Rate (Team)」的共識是什麼？

截至最新更新，Detroit Tigers 以 66% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 Arizona Diamondbacks（49.5%），以及 Atlanta Braves（49.5%）。該市場總成交量已達 $1.3M，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

AI 公允價值與即時市場交易價值有何不同？

即時市場交易價值反映的是公眾情緒、訂單簿動能與投機資金。我們的 AI 公允價值則由量化模型獨立計算，剔除情緒炒作、專注底層數據。兩者出現顯著背離時即形成 EV 差，提示市場對某個結果可能存在錯誤定價。

市場共識是否對某個結果反應過度？

是的——資料顯示市場對 Detroit Tigers 存在明顯的反應過度。人群把其即時交易價值推高至 66%，但我們的公允價值評估認為其真實機率僅為 13.7%，形成 -52.3% 的負 EV 差，表明該合約被高估。

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