LoL: SU Esports vs Verdant (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C

$158.7K Vol
2026年9月24日
Active
機率趨勢
SU Esports 57.5%
Verdant 42.5%

核心摘要

根據「LoL: SU Esports vs Verdant (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前,Game 2 Winner 以壓倒性的 6,250% 獲勝機率主導市場;Match Winner 以 5,900% 位居第二,Game 1 Winner 以 5,700% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $158.7K,反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:

🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者

  • Game 2 Winner (6,250%):Game 2 Winner 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 6,250¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $22.9K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊:主要挑戰者

  • Match Winner (5,900%):作為最可行的替代選項,Match Winner 保持著 5,900% 的成真機率,其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 5,900¢。
  • Game 1 Winner (5,700%):以 5,700% 的機率位列第三,市場對 Game 1 Winner 持謹慎懷疑態度,除非勢頭轉變,否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊:長尾選項(合計約 0%)

在前三名之外,還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低,但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖:

  • 替代選項:包括 Both Teams Slay a Dragon (5,100%)、Both Teams Slay a Dragon (5,050%),以及 Both Teams Slay a Dragon (5,050%)。
  • 投機成交:儘管統計機率偏低,像 Any Player Quadra Kill 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes(成本)買入 No(成本)
1Game 2 Winner6250.0%$22.9K6250¢-6150¢
2Match Winner5900.0%$79.7K5900¢-5800¢
3Game 1 Winner5700.0%$39.2K5700¢-5600¢
4Both Teams Slay a Dragon5100.0%5100¢-5000¢
5Both Teams Slay a Dragon5050.0%5050¢-4950¢
6Both Teams Slay a Dragon5050.0%5050¢-4950¢
7Any Player Quadra Kill5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
8Any Player Penta Kill5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
9Odd/Even Total Kills5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
10Any Player Quadra Kill5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
11Any Player Penta Kill5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
12Odd/Even Total Kills5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
13Any Player Quadra Kill5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
14Any Player Penta Kill5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
15Odd/Even Total Kills5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
16Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
17Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
18Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
19Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
20Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
21Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor4850.0%4850¢-4750¢
22Game Handicap: SU (-1.5) vs Verdant (+1.5)4750.0%$14.5K4750¢-4650¢
23O/U 2.5 Games4300.0%$2.3K4300¢-4200¢

裁決規則

This market refers to the LoL Lower Bracket Final match between SU Esports and Verdant in the EMEA Masters Group C, initially scheduled for September 23, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "SU Esports" if SU Esports win the match against Verdant.

This market will resolve to "Verdant" if Verdant win the match against SU Esports.

If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 23, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played.

If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.

If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Sep 23, 2026

  • 12:14 PM
    KAkamakam
    $2.66

    Bought 5.11 SU Esports for LoL: SU Esports vs Verdant - Game 1 Winner at 0.52

  • 12:14 PM
    SAsajat5mm
    $7.37

    Bought 12.081966 SU Esports for LoL: SU Esports vs Verdant (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C at 0.61

  • 12:12 PM
    XYXyen
    $42.53

    Bought 80.245282 SU Esports for LoL: SU Esports vs Verdant - Game 2 Winner at 0.53

  • 12:11 PM
    XYXyen
    $53.67

    Bought 103.211539 SU Esports for LoL: SU Esports vs Verdant - Game 1 Winner at 0.52

  • 12:08 PM
    DAdancingmonkey1
    $172.00

    Sold 400 Over for Games Total: O/U 2.5 at 0.43

  • 12:08 PM
    DAdancingmonkey1
    $204.00

    Sold 400 SU Esports for LoL: SU Esports vs Verdant - Game 1 Winner at 0.51

  • 12:08 PM
    DAdancingmonkey1
    $204.00

    Sold 400 SU Esports for LoL: SU Esports vs Verdant - Game 2 Winner at 0.51

  • 12:06 PM
    0X0x10CF0821bc351A569E1E48AC2CB002569ff060cF-1764643867221
    $46.19

    Bought 88.826922 SU Esports for LoL: SU Esports vs Verdant - Game 1 Winner at 0.52

  • 12:05 PM
    0X0xccbeAc01564bc655b7bC7c789047B4eFbf18cD28-1767288523805
    $1.00

    Bought 2.777778 SU Esports for Game Handicap: SU (-1.5) vs Verdant (+1.5) at 0.36

  • 12:04 PM
    DAdancingmonkey1
    $20.90

    Bought 54.99 Verdant for LoL: SU Esports vs Verdant (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C at 0.38

  • 12:04 PM
    SNsng888
    $35.00

    Bought 67.307693 SU Esports for LoL: SU Esports vs Verdant - Game 1 Winner at 0.52

  • 12:03 PM
    SLSlowbathroom
    $80.01

    Bought 127 SU Esports for LoL: SU Esports vs Verdant (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C at 0.63

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

691
0x6918…0027
事件損益
+$11.78
成交量
$12,072.31
持倉數
VerdantVerdant
PA2
Parkan312
事件損益
+$56.57
成交量
$3,755.33
持倉數
SU Esports
GO3
GOLDCRYPT12
事件損益
+$15.83
成交量
$3,670.02
持倉數
SU EsportsSU Esports
DE4
delacsynzy1
事件損益
-$12.70
成交量
$2,539.68
持倉數
SU Esports
PL5
pltrkr111
事件損益
-$30.61
成交量
$2,040.80
持倉數
Verdant
Q16
q136084
事件損益
+$13.56
成交量
$1,748.86
持倉數
SU EsportsSU Esports
BR7
bruttoenjoyer
事件損益
-$7.50
成交量
$1,499.99
持倉數
Verdant
-G8
-Guapo--
事件損益
-$22.22
成交量
$1,367.88
持倉數
SU EsportsSU Esports

常見問題

目前市場對「LoL: SU Esports vs Verdant (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C」的共識是什麼?

截至最新更新,Game 2 Winner 以 6,250% 的獲勝機率領跑,其次是 Match Winner(5,900%),以及 Game 1 Winner(5,700%)。該市場總成交量已達 $158.7K,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

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