LoL: Maryville University vs Disguised (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs

$155.8K Vol
2026年10月13日
Active
機率趨勢
Disguised 58.5%
Maryville University 41.5%

核心摘要

根據「LoL: Maryville University vs Disguised (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前,O/U 3.5 Games 以壓倒性的 7,050% 獲勝機率主導市場;Both Teams Slay a Dragon 以 5,100% 位居第二,Both Teams Slay a Dragon 以 5,100% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $155.8K,反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:

🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者

  • O/U 3.5 Games (7,050%):O/U 3.5 Games 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 7,050¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $3.4K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊:主要挑戰者

  • Both Teams Slay a Dragon (5,100%):作為最可行的替代選項,Both Teams Slay a Dragon 保持著 5,100% 的成真機率,其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 5,100¢。
  • Both Teams Slay a Dragon (5,100%):以 5,100% 的機率位列第三,市場對 Both Teams Slay a Dragon 持謹慎懷疑態度,除非勢頭轉變,否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊:長尾選項(合計約 0%)

在前三名之外,還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低,但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖:

  • 替代選項:包括 Both Teams Slay a Dragon (5,100%)、Both Teams Slay a Dragon (5,000%),以及 Any Player Quadra Kill (5,000%)。
  • 投機成交:儘管統計機率偏低,像 Odd/Even Total Kills 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes(成本)買入 No(成本)
1O/U 3.5 Games7050.0%$3.4K7050¢-6950¢
2Both Teams Slay a Dragon5100.0%—5100¢-5000¢
3Both Teams Slay a Dragon5100.0%—5100¢-5000¢
4Both Teams Slay a Dragon5100.0%—5100¢-5000¢
5Both Teams Slay a Dragon5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
6Any Player Quadra Kill5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
7Odd/Even Total Kills5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
8Any Player Quadra Kill5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
9Odd/Even Total Kills5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
10Both Teams Slay a Dragon5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
11Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
12Any Player Quadra Kill5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
13Odd/Even Total Kills5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
14Any Player Quadra Kill5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
15Any Player Penta Kill5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
16Odd/Even Total Kills5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
17Any Player Quadra Kill5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
18Any Player Penta Kill5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
19Odd/Even Total Kills5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
20Game 4 Winner4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
21Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
22Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors4900.0%—4900¢-4800¢
23Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor4900.0%—4900¢-4800¢
24Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors4900.0%—4900¢-4800¢
25Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor4900.0%—4900¢-4800¢
26Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors4900.0%—4900¢-4800¢
27Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors4900.0%—4900¢-4800¢
28Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor4850.0%—4850¢-4750¢
29Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor4850.0%—4850¢-4750¢
30Game Handicap: DSG (-1.5) vs Maryville University (+1.5)4450.0%$54.0K4450¢-4350¢
31Game 1 Winner4350.0%$5.5K4350¢-4250¢
32Game 3 Winner4150.0%$2.0K4150¢-4050¢
33Game 2 Winner4050.0%$2.9K4050¢-3950¢
34Match Winner4050.0%$79.5K4050¢-3950¢
35O/U 4.5 Games2950.0%$6.8K2950¢-2850¢
36Game Handicap: DSG (-2.5) vs Maryville University (+2.5)2050.0%$1.8K2050¢-1950¢
37Any Player Penta Kill1500.0%—1500¢-1400¢
38Any Player Penta Kill750.0%—750¢-650¢
39Any Player Penta Kill750.0%—750¢-650¢

裁決規則

This market refers to the LoL Grand final match between Maryville University and Disguised in the LCS Promotion Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Maryville University" if Maryville University win the match against Disguised.

This market will resolve to "Disguised" if Disguised win the match against Maryville University.

If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 26, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 12, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played.

If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.

If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Oct 12, 2026

  • 12:40 PM
    PUpurplegatto
    $65.24

    Bought 171.69 Maryville University for LoL: Maryville University vs Disguised (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs at 0.38

  • 12:40 PM
    PUpurplegatto
    $45.60

    Bought 120 Maryville University for LoL: Maryville University vs Disguised (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs at 0.38

  • 12:38 PM
    PUpurplegatto
    $289.68

    Bought 762.31 Maryville University for LoL: Maryville University vs Disguised (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs at 0.38

  • 12:33 PM
    MAMathalph
    $100.00

    Bought 196.078432 Maryville University for Game Handicap: DSG (-1.5) vs Maryville University (+1.5) at 0.51

  • 12:33 PM
    CAcaioba00
    $100.00

    Bought 196.078432 Maryville University for Game Handicap: DSG (-1.5) vs Maryville University (+1.5) at 0.51

  • 12:32 PM
    0X0xB9a2C26b9A817c740e52DD2a531DE964F40BB3cd-1770568120431
    $200.00

    Bought 392.156863 Maryville University for Game Handicap: DSG (-1.5) vs Maryville University (+1.5) at 0.51

  • 12:06 PM
    NInigiri99
    $46.36

    Bought 122 Maryville University for LoL: Maryville University vs Disguised (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs at 0.38

  • 11:58 AM
    RORODRIGOGARCIAGA
    $21.00

    Bought 33.333332 Disguised for LoL: Maryville University vs Disguised (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs at 0.63

  • 11:54 AM
    ALAlexMaister
    $5.00

    Bought 9.803922 Maryville University for Game Handicap: DSG (-1.5) vs Maryville University (+1.5) at 0.51

  • 11:54 AM
    0X0x0c330baa07d0b6F498AD3f273339E0429090E0DA-1776279116069
    $36.85

    Bought 89.87 Maryville University for LoL: Maryville University vs Disguised - Game 1 Winner at 0.41

  • 11:42 AM
    0X0x0c330baa07d0b6F498AD3f273339E0429090E0DA-1776279116069
    $21.48

    Bought 53.69 Maryville University for LoL: Maryville University vs Disguised - Game 1 Winner at 0.4

  • 11:39 AM
    LULuckdawg
    $5.00

    Bought 10 Disguised for Game Handicap: DSG (-1.5) vs Maryville University (+1.5) at 0.5

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

GO1
Gooooooollllllllll
事件損益
+$107.02
成交量
$25,524.88
持倉數
DisguisedDisguisedDisguised
KE2
kevinmeng
事件損益
-$94.98
成交量
$19,000.02
持倉數
Maryville University
693
0x6918…0027
事件損益
-$152.86
成交量
$17,507.32
持倉數
UnderDisguisedDisguised+4
0X4
0x0x23…h8c9
事件損益
-$21.00
成交量
$9,484.10
持倉數
DisguisedDisguised
LU5
lug
事件損益
-$31.90
成交量
$6,383.00
持倉數
Disguised
CW6
Cwy00000
事件損益
-$78.22
成交量
$5,214.71
持倉數
Maryville University
SK7
Skyfker
事件損益
+$25.00
成交量
$5,000.00
持倉數
Maryville University
ON8
oneheadedtiger
事件損益
-$1.41
成交量
$4,512.17
持倉數
Maryville UniversityMaryville UniversityMaryville University+1

常見問題

目前市場對「LoL: Maryville University vs Disguised (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs」的共識是什麼?

截至最新更新,O/U 3.5 Games 以 7,050% 的獲勝機率領跑,其次是 Both Teams Slay a Dragon(5,100%),以及 Both Teams Slay a Dragon(5,100%)。該市場總成交量已達 $155.8K,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

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