LoL: LYON vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs

$2.4M Vol
2026年9月20日
Active
機率趨勢
LYON 64.5%
Cloud9 35.0%

核心摘要

根據「LoL: LYON vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前,Game 2 Winner 以壓倒性的 9,995% 獲勝機率主導市場;O/U 3.5 Games 以 9,995% 位居第二,Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2? 以 9,950% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $2.4M,反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:

🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者

  • Game 2 Winner (9,995%):Game 2 Winner 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 9,995¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $868.3K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊:主要挑戰者

  • O/U 3.5 Games (9,995%):作為最可行的替代選項,O/U 3.5 Games 保持著 9,995% 的成真機率,其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 9,995¢。
  • Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2? (9,950%):以 9,950% 的機率位列第三,市場對 Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2? 持謹慎懷疑態度,除非勢頭轉變,否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊:長尾選項(合計約 0%)

在前三名之外,還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低,但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖:

  • 替代選項:包括 Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? (9,950%)、Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? (9,950%),以及 Total Kills Over/Under 15.5 in Game 1? (9,950%)。
  • 投機成交:儘管統計機率偏低,像 Total Kills Over/Under 18.5 in Game 1? 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes(成本)買入 No(成本)
1Game 2 Winner9995.0%$868.3K9995¢-9895¢
2O/U 3.5 Games9995.0%$8.3K9995¢-9895¢
3Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?9950.0%$1039950¢-9850¢
4Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?9950.0%$649950¢-9850¢
5Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?9950.0%$109950¢-9850¢
6Total Kills Over/Under 15.5 in Game 1?9950.0%$309950¢-9850¢
7Total Kills Over/Under 18.5 in Game 1?9950.0%$309950¢-9850¢
8Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?9950.0%$309950¢-9850¢
9Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 2?9950.0%$429950¢-9850¢
10Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?9950.0%$309950¢-9850¢
11Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 1?7750.0%$307750¢-7650¢
12Match Winner6750.0%$457.3K6750¢-6650¢
13Game 4 Winner6550.0%$1.9K6550¢-6450¢
14Odd/Even Total Kills5800.0%$105800¢-5700¢
15First Blood in Game 1?5100.0%5100¢-5000¢
16Game 3 Winner5050.0%$362.4K5050¢-4950¢
17Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
18Both Teams Slay a Dragon5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
19Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
20Any Player Quadra Kill5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
21Any Player Penta Kill5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
22Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
23Both Teams Slay a Dragon5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
24Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
25Any Player Quadra Kill5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
26Any Player Penta Kill5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
27Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
28Both Teams Slay a Dragon5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
29Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
30Any Player Quadra Kill5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
31Any Player Penta Kill5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
32Odd/Even Total Kills5000.0%$105000¢-4900¢
33Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
34Both Teams Slay a Dragon5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
35Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
36Any Player Quadra Kill5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
37Any Player Penta Kill5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
38Odd/Even Total Kills5000.0%$105000¢-4900¢
39Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
40Both Teams Slay a Dragon5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
41Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
42Any Player Quadra Kill5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
43Any Player Penta Kill5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
44Odd/Even Total Kills5000.0%$105000¢-4900¢
45First Blood in Game 2?5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
46First Blood in Game 4?5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
47Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 4?5000.0%$15000¢-4900¢
48Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3?5000.0%$505000¢-4900¢
49Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?5000.0%$45000¢-4900¢
50Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
51Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
52Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
53Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 3?5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
54Total Kills Over/Under 18.5 in Game 3?5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
55Total Kills Over/Under 15.5 in Game 3?5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
56O/U 4.5 Games4950.0%$16.5K4950¢-4850¢
57First Blood in Game 3?4950.0%4950¢-4850¢
58Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 2?4250.0%$304250¢-4150¢
59Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Cloud9 (+1.5)3450.0%$23.5K3450¢-3350¢
60Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5)1700.0%$3591700¢-1600¢
61Odd/Even Total Kills55.0%$1055¢45¢
62Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?55.0%$4.3K55¢45¢
63Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?55.0%$3555¢45¢
64Game 1 Winner5.0%$642.2K95¢
65Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Cloud9 (+2.5)5.0%$43.9K95¢
66Game Handicap: C9 (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5)5.0%$16095¢

裁決規則

This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between LYON and Cloud9 in the LCS Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 19, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "LYON" if LYON win the match against Cloud9.

This market will resolve to "Cloud9" if Cloud9 win the match against LYON.

If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 19, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played.

If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.

If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Sep 19, 2026

  • 09:58 PM
    UCUchihaObito
    $11.68

    Bought 25.4 LYON for Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Cloud9 (+1.5) at 0.46

  • 09:56 PM
    JUjuanuski235
    $188.50

    Bought 290 LYON for LoL: LYON vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner at 0.65

  • 09:56 PM
    MAmartinmxx
    $6.50

    Bought 10 LYON for LoL: LYON vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner at 0.65

  • 09:55 PM
    0X0xbbf379252411511ADAb081F016Dc991aA6bbAA3A-1768154730738
    $1,852.09

    Bought 2806.199241 LYON for LoL: LYON vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner at 0.66

  • 09:55 PM
    SUsuntori
    $9.52

    Bought 14.646154 LYON for LoL: LYON vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner at 0.65

  • 09:55 PM
    JUjuanuski235
    $1,192.25

    Sold 1192.25 LYON for LoL: LYON vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner at 1

  • 09:55 PM
    ROromulkvirin
    $324.98

    Bought 601.818 Cloud9 for Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Cloud9 (+1.5) at 0.54

  • 09:55 PM
    AGAGBetsCo
    $5.30

    Sold 10 Cloud9 for Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Cloud9 (+1.5) at 0.53

  • 09:55 PM
    TItink90
    $147.89

    Sold 147.89 LYON for LoL: LYON vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner at 1

  • 09:55 PM
    DDddp0618
    $70.15

    Bought 206.32353 Cloud9 for LoL: LYON vs Cloud9 - Game 4 Winner at 0.34

  • 09:55 PM
    ZEZeJunior
    $200.00

    Bought 571.428572 Cloud9 for LoL: LYON vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner at 0.35

  • 09:55 PM
    GUGudNNN
    $80.03

    Sold 151 Cloud9 for Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Cloud9 (+1.5) at 0.53

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

F21
0xF201…4616
事件損益
-$18,439.08
成交量
$49,050.58
持倉數
LYON
CO2
CoinTrick
事件損益
+$24.47
成交量
$48,932.40
持倉數
Cloud9
B53
0xb552…6141
事件損益
-$2,671.25
成交量
$34,742.94
持倉數
LYON
SO4
sofa88888
事件損益
+$8,051.91
成交量
$31,048.11
持倉數
Cloud9Cloud9Cloud9
SU5
Sunshine.Smile
事件損益
-$11,740.07
成交量
$26,266.80
持倉數
LYON
VE6
verifly
事件損益
+$5.80
成交量
$26,209.37
持倉數
LYON
TA7
TAIWANNUMBERONE
事件損益
+$3.57
成交量
$25,027.62
持倉數
Cloud9
JA8
jaytee158
事件損益
-$4,886.18
成交量
$24,534.47
持倉數
LYON

常見問題

目前市場對「LoL: LYON vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs」的共識是什麼?

截至最新更新,Game 2 Winner 以 9,995% 的獲勝機率領跑,其次是 O/U 3.5 Games(9,995%),以及 Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?(9,950%)。該市場總成交量已達 $2.4M,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

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