LA28 Olympics run as scheduled?

根據「LA28 Olympics run as scheduled?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Yes 以壓倒性的 9,065% 獲勝機率主導市場；No 以 935% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 $40.6K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Yes (9,065%)：Yes 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 9,065¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• No (935%)：作為最可行的替代選項，No 保持著 935% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 935¢。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least 177 gold medals have been officially awarded at the 2028 Los Angeles Olympic Games (LA28) by July 25, 2028, 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “officially awarded” is defined as the gold-deciding final for the relevant event concluding and the gold medalist(s) being determined under official results. A qualifying awarding will still count towards the total regardless of whether the results are later reviewed or modified.

Medal ceremonies aren’t required for an awarding to qualify. Each event will count once towards the total; a team gold or a shared gold will still count as one event.

Both the specified threshold and deadline will remain fixed regardless of whether events are added to or cut from the program, or if LA28 is postponed, suspended, shortened, relocated, or rescheduled in any way.

Heats, prelims, semifinals, and any phase that doesn’t decide gold will not count. Events postponed past the deadline or cancelled without deciding a gold medalist will not count.

If LA28 officially awards at least one gold medal but is cancelled or curtailed, this market will resolve on the number of officially awarded gold medals up until that point.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there exists any ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the organizers of LA28, including the Los Angeles Organizing Committee (https://la28.org/) and the International Olympic Committee (https://www.olympics.com/).