Kentucky Governor Election Winner (2027)

$2.1K Vol
2027年11月3日
Active
機率趨勢
Republican 80.5%
Democrat 16.5%

核心摘要

根據「Kentucky Governor Election Winner (2027)」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前,Republican 以壓倒性的 8,050% 獲勝機率主導市場;Democrat 以 1,650% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 $2.1K,反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:

🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者

  • Republican (8,050%):Republican 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 8,050¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $2.1K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊:主要挑戰者

  • Democrat (1,650%):作為最可行的替代選項,Democrat 保持著 1,650% 的成真機率,其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 1,650¢。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes(成本)買入 No(成本)
1Republican8050.0%$2.1K8050¢-7950¢
2Democrat1650.0%$471650¢-1550¢

裁決規則

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2027 Kentucky gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

常見問題

目前市場對「Kentucky Governor Election Winner (2027)」的共識是什麼?

截至最新更新,Republican 以 8,050% 的獲勝機率領跑,其次是 Democrat(1,650%)。該市場總成交量已達 $2.1K,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

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