Keisha Lance Bottoms runs behind Jon Ossoff by...? (First Round)

根據「Keisha Lance Bottoms runs behind Jon Ossoff by...? (First Round)」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，6-9 points behind 以壓倒性的 3,050% 獲勝機率主導市場；Runs ahead 以 2,600% 位居第二，3-6 points behind 以 2,550% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• 6-9 points behind (3,050%)：6-9 points behind 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 3,050¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Runs ahead (2,600%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Runs ahead 保持著 2,600% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 2,600¢。
• 3-6 points behind (2,550%)：以 2,550% 的機率位列第三，市場對 3-6 points behind 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 9+ points behind (2,450%)，以及 0-3 points behind (1,100%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 9+ points behind 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

The 2026 Georgia general election is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. Keisha Lance Bottoms is the Democratic nominee for Governor of Georgia, and Jon Ossoff is the Democratic nominee for United States Senate in Georgia.

This market will resolve based on how many percentage points Keisha Lance Bottoms’ vote share in the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election falls below Jon Ossoff’s vote share in the 2026 Georgia U.S. Senate election. If Bottoms’ vote share exceeds Ossoff’s, this market will resolve to “Runs ahead”.

Each candidate’s vote share will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for that candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in that candidate’s respective race, including write-in votes, calculated from the certified vote totals without rounding. This market will consider only the first round of each election. For a race that includes a runoff, ranked-choice, or other multi-round process, the relevant vote share will be that of the first round — the initial count of votes before any runoff, reallocation, or elimination of candidates.

If the reported difference falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the two vote shares are equal, this market will resolve to “0-3 points behind.”

If either candidate withdraws or is otherwise removed from the general election ballot such that they receive no recorded votes, or if a candidate’s vote share cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that candidate will be considered to have received 0% of the vote.

The resolution source for this market will be the certified results published by the Georgia Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.