Israel military action against Lebanon on...?

根據「Israel military action against Lebanon on...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，September 15 以壓倒性的 8,700% 獲勝機率主導市場；September 16 以 8,650% 位居第二，September 10 以 8,500% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $446.6K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• September 15 (8,700%)：September 15 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 8,700¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• September 16 (8,650%)：作為最可行的替代選項，September 16 保持著 8,650% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 8,650¢。
• September 10 (8,500%)：以 8,500% 的機率位列第三，市場對 September 10 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 September 29 (8,500%)、September 22 (8,300%)，以及 September 9 (8,250%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 September 17 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.

The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:

Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;

Surface-to-air missile strikes;

Small-arms fire;

Ground incursions;

Cyber operations;

Naval gunfire and artillery fire;

Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);

Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;

Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.

Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.

“Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify.

The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.