Elon Musk # tweets October 2 - October 9, 2026?

根據「Elon Musk # tweets October 2 - October 9, 2026?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，180-199 以壓倒性的 2,250% 獲勝機率主導市場；200-219 以 2,200% 位居第二，160-179 以 1,700% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $1.9K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• 180-199 (2,250%)：180-199 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 2,250¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $730 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• 200-219 (2,200%)：作為最可行的替代選項，200-219 保持著 2,200% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 2,200¢。
• 160-179 (1,700%)：以 1,700% 的機率位列第三，市場對 160-179 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 220-239 (1,500%)、240-259 (850%)，以及 380-399 (850%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 400-419 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 2 12:00 PM ET to October 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.