Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs

$2.2M Vol
2026年10月10日
Active
機率趨勢
PARIVISION 87.5%
Aurora 12.5%

核心摘要

根據「Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前,Match Winner 以壓倒性的 7,950% 獲勝機率主導市場;O/U 2.5 Games 以 5,950% 位居第二,Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? 以 5,300% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $2.2M,反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:

🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者

  • Match Winner (7,950%):Match Winner 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 7,950¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $253.1K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊:主要挑戰者

  • O/U 2.5 Games (5,950%):作為最可行的替代選項,O/U 2.5 Games 保持著 5,950% 的成真機率,其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 5,950¢。
  • Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? (5,300%):以 5,300% 的機率位列第三,市場對 Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? 持謹慎懷疑態度,除非勢頭轉變,否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊:長尾選項(合計約 0%)

在前三名之外,還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低,但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖:

  • 替代選項:包括 Ends in Daytime (5,050%)、Any Player Ultra Kill (5,000%),以及 Any Player Rampage (5,000%)。
  • 投機成交:儘管統計機率偏低,像 Ends in Daytime 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes(成本)買入 No(成本)
1Match Winner7950.0%$253.1K7950¢-7850¢
2O/U 2.5 Games5950.0%$1.4K5950¢-5850¢
3Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2?5300.0%$1095300¢-5200¢
4Ends in Daytime5050.0%—5050¢-4950¢
5Any Player Ultra Kill5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
6Any Player Rampage5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
7Ends in Daytime5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
8Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2?5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
9Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2?5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
10Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 2?5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
11Total Kills Over/Under 75.5 in Game 2?5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
12Both Teams Beat Roshan4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
13Both Teams Destroy Barracks4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
14First Blood in Game 2?4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
15First Blood in Game 1?4950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
16Both Teams Destroy Barracks4900.0%—4900¢-4800¢
17Both Teams Beat Roshan4900.0%—4900¢-4800¢
18Any Player Ultra Kill4900.0%—4900¢-4800¢
19Any Player Rampage4900.0%—4900¢-4800¢
20Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)4150.0%$39.7K4150¢-4050¢
21Game 2 Winner4050.0%$765.8K4050¢-3950¢

裁決規則

This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower Bracket Semifinal match between PARIVISION and Aurora in the BLAST Slam Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET.

This market will resolve to "PARIVISION" if PARIVISION win the match against Aurora.

This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win the match against PARIVISION.

If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 24, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played.

If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.

If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Oct 10, 2026

  • 02:10 PM
    BAbabyboy9
    $1,741.76

    Bought 2561.41 PARIVISION for Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5) at 0.68

  • 02:09 PM
    ESesport-puman
    $2.00

    Bought 14.285715 Aurora for Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs at 0.14

  • 02:09 PM
    SHshaorun
    $24.79

    Bought 37.560605 PARIVISION for Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5) at 0.66

  • 02:09 PM
    YIyishiwucheng
    $127.73

    Bought 375.69 Aurora for Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5) at 0.34

  • 02:09 PM
    SHshaorun
    $23.83

    Bought 35.57353 PARIVISION for Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5) at 0.67

  • 02:09 PM
    WOworkerworker
    $238.51

    Bought 361.38 PARIVISION for Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5) at 0.66

  • 02:08 PM
    KAKamaz.cem
    $45.60

    Bought 70.153845 PARIVISION for Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5) at 0.65

  • 02:08 PM
    MAmachiney
    $10.00

    Bought 11.627907 PARIVISION for Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs at 0.86

  • 02:08 PM
    2121372137
    $15.00

    Bought 100 Aurora for Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs at 0.15

  • 02:08 PM
    ROrossoftw
    $7.78

    Bought 12.34375 PARIVISION for Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5) at 0.63

  • 02:06 PM
    0X0xonlywin
    $8.59

    Bought 23.216217 Aurora for Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5) at 0.37

  • 02:05 PM
    0X0xonlywin
    $12.00

    Bought 80 Aurora for Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs at 0.15

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

DI1
Diabolical-Prize
事件損益
+$40,043.13
成交量
$170,025.93
持倉數
PARIVISION
E12
0xE16D…0592
事件損益
-$23,142.63
成交量
$115,946.47
持倉數
AuroraAurora
FO3
fortnitethegoat667
事件損益
-$4,837.07
成交量
$40,702.67
持倉數
Aurora
ME4
Medo3D
事件損益
-$5,862.74
成交量
$26,065.25
持倉數
Aurora
SU5
Sunshine.Smile
事件損益
-$7,374.95
成交量
$24,999.99
持倉數
Aurora
SK6
Skritopoolniy
事件損益
-$5,622.99
成交量
$23,747.91
持倉數
Aurora
CO7
CORGI777
事件損益
-$2,347.51
成交量
$22,359.25
持倉數
Aurora
F28
0xF201…4616
事件損益
-$5,127.97
成交量
$21,583.59
持倉數
Aurora

常見問題

目前市場對「Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs」的共識是什麼?

截至最新更新,Match Winner 以 7,950% 的獲勝機率領跑,其次是 O/U 2.5 Games(5,950%),以及 Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2?(5,300%)。該市場總成交量已達 $2.2M,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

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