Counter-Strike: mellren vs Gothic (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group B

$145K Vol
2026年10月7日
Active
機率趨勢
Gothic 57.5%
mellren 42.5%

核心摘要

根據「Counter-Strike: mellren vs Gothic (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group B」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前,Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gothic (-3.5) vs mellren (+3.5) 以壓倒性的 5,000% 獲勝機率主導市場;Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 以 5,000% 位居第二,Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gothic (-3.5) vs mellren (+3.5) 以 5,000% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $145K,反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:

🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者

  • Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gothic (-3.5) vs mellren (+3.5) (5,000%):Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gothic (-3.5) vs mellren (+3.5) 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 5,000¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊:主要挑戰者

  • Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 (5,000%):作為最可行的替代選項,Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 保持著 5,000% 的成真機率,其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 5,000¢。
  • Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gothic (-3.5) vs mellren (+3.5) (5,000%):以 5,000% 的機率位列第三,市場對 Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gothic (-3.5) vs mellren (+3.5) 持謹慎懷疑態度,除非勢頭轉變,否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊:長尾選項(合計約 0%)

在前三名之外,還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低,但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖:

  • 替代選項:包括 Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 (5,000%)、Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gothic (-3.5) vs mellren (+3.5) (5,000%),以及 Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 (5,000%)。
  • 投機成交:儘管統計機率偏低,像 Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gothic (-6.5) vs mellren (+6.5) 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes(成本)買入 No(成本)
1Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gothic (-3.5) vs mellren (+3.5)5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
2Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
3Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gothic (-3.5) vs mellren (+3.5)5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
4Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
5Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gothic (-3.5) vs mellren (+3.5)5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
6Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
7Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gothic (-6.5) vs mellren (+6.5)5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
8Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
9Map Handicap: Gothic (-1.5) vs mellren (+1.5)4950.0%$8.8K4950¢-4850¢
10Map 2 Winner4200.0%$8884200¢-4100¢
11Match Winner4050.0%$133.2K4050¢-3950¢
12O/U 2.5 Games3600.0%$1.2K3600¢-3500¢
13Map 1 Winner1150.0%$11.1K1150¢-1050¢

裁決規則

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Winners' match between mellren and Gothic in the NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group B, initially scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET.

This market will resolve to "mellren" if mellren win the match against Gothic.

This market will resolve to "Gothic" if Gothic win the match against mellren.

If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 20, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 6, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played.

If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.

If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Oct 6, 2026

  • 01:25 PM
    ——
    $1.47

    Bought 2.370968 Gothic for Counter-Strike: mellren vs Gothic (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group B at 0.62

  • 01:25 PM
    0X0x0284e1C5b93A6fe07aa5e83e8543D6e33F8a97F6-1779001826210
    $30.00

    Bought 50 Gothic for Counter-Strike: mellren vs Gothic (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group B at 0.6

  • 01:22 PM
    TEtetvdv
    $826.20

    Sold 1449.48 Gothic for Counter-Strike: mellren vs Gothic (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group B at 0.57

  • 01:20 PM
    PRprimeAnchor
    $480.77

    Bought 1265.18 mellren for Counter-Strike: mellren vs Gothic (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group B at 0.38

  • 01:20 PM
    JEJefferson123
    $20.00

    Bought 52.631579 mellren for Counter-Strike: mellren vs Gothic (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group B at 0.38

  • 01:18 PM
    0X0x207702d39743B9E76595fB2982dccdb300FB8161-1772429680242
    $10.05

    Bought 26.44 mellren for Counter-Strike: mellren vs Gothic (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group B at 0.38

  • 01:18 PM
    CHchosenname
    $94.43

    Bought 248.5 mellren for Counter-Strike: mellren vs Gothic (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group B at 0.38

  • 01:18 PM
    IGigot50k
    $48.75

    Bought 128.289474 mellren for Counter-Strike: mellren vs Gothic (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group B at 0.38

  • 01:13 PM
    ——
    $5.00

    Bought 7.8125 Gothic for Counter-Strike: mellren vs Gothic (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group B at 0.64

  • 01:12 PM
    NKnktshmlv05
    $119.20

    Bought 189.20703 Gothic for Counter-Strike: mellren vs Gothic (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group B at 0.63

  • 01:12 PM
    PRprimeAnchor
    $188.30

    Bought 482.82 mellren for Counter-Strike: mellren vs Gothic (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group B at 0.39

  • 01:12 PM
    N0n00bee
    $3.05

    Bought 5 Gothic for Counter-Strike: mellren vs Gothic (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group B at 0.61

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

291
0x29b5…63d7
事件損益
+$107.04
成交量
$7,628.64
持倉數
mellrenmellren
CO2
codebasic
事件損益
+$58.59
成交量
$3,767.61
持倉數
Gothic
WI3
WizardQvQ
事件損益
-$17.24
成交量
$2,522.60
持倉數
Gothic
VE4
VeryLucky888
事件損益
-$24.55
成交量
$1,091.37
持倉數
mellrenGothic
SE5
sentrio
事件損益
+$15.27
成交量
$826.95
持倉數
mellren
ZE6
zedkingcyn
事件損益
-$38.71
成交量
$806.21
持倉數
GothicGothic
NN7
NNNNNobita
事件損益
+$2.59
成交量
$517.25
持倉數
Gothic
VI8
villka
事件損益
-$36.75
成交量
$504.05
持倉數
Gothic

常見問題

目前市場對「Counter-Strike: mellren vs Gothic (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group B」的共識是什麼?

截至最新更新,Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gothic (-3.5) vs mellren (+3.5) 以 5,000% 的獲勝機率領跑,其次是 Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5(5,000%),以及 Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gothic (-3.5) vs mellren (+3.5)(5,000%)。該市場總成交量已達 $145K,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

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