Cornell President out by October 31?

根據「Cornell President out by October 31?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Yes 以壓倒性的 5,050% 獲勝機率主導市場；No 以 4,950% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 $66，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Yes (5,050%)：Yes 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 5,050¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• No (4,950%)：作為最可行的替代選項，No 保持著 4,950% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 4,950¢。

This market resolves to “Yes” if Michael Kotlikoff’s departure as President of Cornell University is officially announced by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The departure will be considered to be announced when Michael Kotlikoff, Cornell University, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Michael Kotlikoff has ceased or will cease to hold the position of President of Cornell University. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when Michael Kotlikoff formally leaves the position. Announcements of Michael Kotlikoff’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.

Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify).

Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to Michael Kotlikoff’s duties as President of Cornell University do not qualify.

The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that Michael Kotlikoff is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that Michael Kotlikoff will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that Michael Kotlikoff plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than Michael Kotlikoff, Cornell University, or their respective authorized representatives.

If Michael Kotlikoff formally ceases to hold the position of President of Cornell University without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to “Yes” if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Michael Kotlikoff and Cornell University; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.