Core CPI MoM - September 2026

$93.9K Vol
1年1月1日
Resolved
機率趨勢
0.3% 100.0%
0.2% 0.1%
0.1% 0.1%
≤0.0% 0.1%
0.4% 0.1%

核心摘要

根據「Core CPI MoM - September 2026」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，0.6%+ 以壓倒性的 0.3% 獲勝機率主導市場。該市場的下注量已達 $93.9K，反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

  • 0.6%+ (0.3%)：0.6%+ 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 0¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $2.7K 的成交量。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes（成本）買入 No（成本）
10.6%+0.3%$2.7K0¢100¢

裁決規則

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in September 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.

If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

AI 估值分析：發現市場錯誤定價與 EV 差

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

  • 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 0.6%+ 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 0.3% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 6.5%——形成可觀的 +6.3% EV 差。
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
0.6%+Best EV0.3%6.5%+6.3%

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Oct 14, 2026

  • 08:25 AM
    0X0x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f882-1783406009396
    $4.76

    Bought 34 Yes for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in September? at 0.14

  • 08:04 AM
    GRgrinder1011
    $1.77

    Bought 59 Yes for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in September? at 0.03

  • 08:04 AM
    GRgrinder1011
    $7.67

    Bought 59 Yes for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in September? at 0.13

  • 07:53 AM
    GRgrinder1011
    $3.25

    Bought 25 Yes for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in September? at 0.13

  • 07:53 AM
    GRgrinder1011
    $0.50

    Bought 25 Yes for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in September? at 0.02

  • 07:30 AM
    0X0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438
    $0.61

    Sold 0.89 No for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? at 0.69

  • 07:30 AM
    0X0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438
    $0.77

    Sold 0.89 No for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in September? at 0.87

  • 07:30 AM
    3I3iron
    $68.04

    Bought 138.862942 No for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September? at 0.49

  • 07:30 AM
    EQeqzwe103qwie
    $77.05

    Sold 148.18 Yes for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September? at 0.52

  • 06:28 AM
    ——
    $1.00

    Bought 2.040817 No for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September? at 0.49

  • 06:17 AM
    ——
    $1.00

    Bought 2.040817 No for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September? at 0.49

  • 06:07 AM
    EIEicardo
    $50.00

    Bought 96.153847 Yes for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September? at 0.52

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

AL1
allen114
事件損益
-$6,941.06
成交量
$10,215.01
持倉數
No
A52
0xa5ef…2966
事件損益
+$3,545.97
成交量
$7,091.94
持倉數
NoNo
673
0x67ba…fafe
事件損益
+$3,373.07
成交量
$5,336.62
持倉數
Yes
PE4
perfectnostalgia
事件損益
-$200.40
成交量
$4,493.19
持倉數
Yes
PO5
podairpod
事件損益
-$78.86
成交量
$2,413.53
持倉數
Yes
666
0x66E7…3938
事件損益
+$43.38
成交量
$2,036.06
持倉數
NoYes
TU7
turtle911
事件損益
+$1.72
成交量
$1,267.11
持倉數
Yes
TH8
TheElement115
事件損益
+$30.50
成交量
$1,031.02
持倉數
Yes

常見問題

目前市場對「Core CPI MoM - September 2026」的共識是什麼？

截至最新更新，0.6%+ 以 0.3% 的獲勝機率領跑。該市場總成交量已達 $93.9K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

AI 公允價值與即時市場交易價值有何不同？

即時市場交易價值反映的是公眾情緒、訂單簿動能與投機資金。我們的 AI 公允價值則由量化模型獨立計算，剔除情緒炒作、專注底層數據。兩者出現顯著背離時即形成 EV 差，提示市場對某個結果可能存在錯誤定價。

目前哪個結果的期望值（EV）最高？

最新一輪測算顯示，0.6%+ 是最顯著的錯誤定價。市場對其隱含機率僅給到 0.3%，而我們的 AI 測算其公允價值為 6.5%——形成 +6.3% 的期望值差，是該市場中最具價值的標的。

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