Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?

根據「Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，October 31, 2026 以壓倒性的 4,700% 獲勝機率主導市場；September 30, 2026 以 700% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 $2K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• October 31, 2026 (4,700%)：October 31, 2026 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 4,700¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $12 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• September 30, 2026 (700%)：作為最可行的替代選項，September 30, 2026 保持著 700% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 700¢。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.

If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.