Marshall vs. Penn State

$52.7K Vol
2026年9月5日
Active
機率趨勢
Penn State 99.6%
Marshall 0.4%

核心摘要

根據「Marshall vs. Penn State」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Spread -13.5 以壓倒性的 9,100% 獲勝機率主導市場；Spread -16.5 以 8,750% 位居第二，Spread -7.5 以 8,550% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $52.7K，反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

  • Spread -13.5 (9,100%)：Spread -13.5 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 9,100¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $7 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

  • Spread -16.5 (8,750%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Spread -16.5 保持著 8,750% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 8,750¢。
  • Spread -7.5 (8,550%)：以 8,550% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Spread -7.5 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

  • 替代選項：包括 Spread -17.5 (8,500%)、Spread -21.5 (8,500%)，以及 Spread -4.5 (8,400%)。
  • 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Spread -5.5 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes（成本）買入 No（成本）
1Spread -13.59100.0%$79100¢-9000¢
2Spread -16.58750.0%—8750¢-8650¢
3Spread -7.58550.0%—8550¢-8450¢
4Spread -17.58500.0%—8500¢-8400¢
5Spread -21.58500.0%$2728500¢-8400¢
6Spread -4.58400.0%—8400¢-8300¢
7Spread -5.58400.0%$328400¢-8300¢
8Spread -23.58250.0%$28.2K8250¢-8150¢
9Spread: Penn State (-24.5)7850.0%$1927850¢-7750¢
10Spread -20.57350.0%$437350¢-7250¢
11Spread -27.57050.0%$507050¢-6950¢
12O/U 37.56700.0%—6700¢-6600¢
13O/U 43.55550.0%$885550¢-5450¢
14Spread -6.55350.0%—5350¢-5250¢
15Spread -3.55300.0%—5300¢-5200¢
16Spread -14.55250.0%—5250¢-5150¢
17Spread -10.55200.0%—5200¢-5100¢
181H Spread -13.55050.0%$505050¢-4950¢
191H Spread -14.55050.0%$575050¢-4950¢
20O/U 53.55000.0%$4.3K5000¢-4900¢
21Spread -0.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
22Spread -1.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
23Spread -2.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
24Spread -8.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
25Spread -31.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
26Spread -34.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
27O/U 33.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
28O/U 35.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
29O/U 39.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
30O/U 41.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
31O/U 45.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
32O/U 47.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
33O/U 51.55000.0%$1.6K5000¢-4900¢
34O/U 59.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
35O/U 63.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
36O/U 65.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
37O/U 69.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
38O/U 71.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
392H Moneyline5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
401H Spread -11.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
411H Spread -12.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
421H Spread -15.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
432Q Spread -5.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
442Q Spread -6.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
452Q Spread -7.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
462Q Spread -8.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
472Q Spread -9.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
482Q Moneyline5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
493Q Spread -4.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
503Q Spread -5.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
513Q Spread -6.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
523Q Spread -7.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
533Q Spread -8.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
543Q Moneyline5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
554Q Moneyline5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
56Penn State O/U 32.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
57Penn State O/U 35.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
58Penn State O/U 38.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
59Penn State O/U 41.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
60Penn State O/U 44.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
61Marshall O/U 7.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
62Marshall O/U 10.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
63Marshall O/U 13.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
64Marshall O/U 16.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
65Marshall O/U 19.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
66Penn State 1H O/U 18.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
67Penn State 1H O/U 20.55000.0%$65000¢-4900¢
68Penn State 1H O/U 22.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
692H Spread -8.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
702H Spread -11.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
71Marshall O/U 8.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
72Marshall O/U 11.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
73Marshall O/U 14.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
74Marshall O/U 17.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
75Marshall O/U 20.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
76Marshall 1H O/U 4.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
77Marshall 1H O/U 6.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
78Marshall 1H O/U 8.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
79Marshall 2H O/U 4.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
80Marshall 2H O/U 6.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
81Marshall 2H O/U 8.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
82Penn State 2H O/U 14.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
83Penn State 2H O/U 16.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
84Penn State 2H O/U 18.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
85Marshall 1H O/U 5.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
86Marshall 1H O/U 7.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
87Marshall 1H O/U 9.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
882H Spread -12.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
892H Spread -13.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
90Penn State 2H O/U 15.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
91Penn State 2H O/U 17.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
92Penn State 2H O/U 19.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
93Penn State O/U 31.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
94Penn State O/U 34.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
95Penn State O/U 37.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
96Penn State O/U 40.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
97Penn State O/U 43.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
984Q Spread -3.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
994Q Spread -4.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
1004Q Spread -5.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
1014Q Spread -6.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
1024Q Spread -7.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
1033Q Spread -3.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
104Penn State O/U 4.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
105Marshall O/U 1.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
106Carson Hansen: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
107Rocco Becht: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
108James Peoples: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
109Quinton Martin Jr.: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
110Benjamin Brahmer: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
111Carlos Del Rio-Wilson: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
112Joshon Barbie: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
113Chase Sowell: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
114Brett Eskildsen: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
115Adrian Norton: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
116Andrew Rappleyea: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
117TJ Lester: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
118Zay Robinson: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
119Koby Howard: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
120Toby Payne: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
121De'Andre Tamarez: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
122Keith Jones: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
123Christian Hamilton: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
124Peter Gonzalez: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
125Chris Culliver: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
126Owen Sweeney: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
1274Q Spread -2.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
128Marshall 2H O/U 5.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
129Marshall 2H O/U 7.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
130Marshall 2H O/U 9.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
1311H Moneyline4950.0%$874950¢-4850¢
1322H Spread -7.54950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
1332H Spread -6.54950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
1342H Spread -10.54850.0%—4850¢-4750¢
135O/U 49.54400.0%$1564400¢-4300¢
1362H Spread -9.54300.0%—4300¢-4200¢
137O/U 52.53650.0%$12.5K3650¢-3550¢
138O/U 54.52700.0%$2322700¢-2600¢
139O/U 55.52350.0%$252350¢-2250¢
140O/U 57.52350.0%—2350¢-2250¢
141O/U 61.52100.0%—2100¢-2000¢
142O/U 73.51000.0%—1000¢-900¢
143O/U 67.5900.0%—900¢-800¢
144Marshall vs. Penn State50.0%$7.5K50¢50¢

裁決規則

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 5 at 3:30PM ET:

If Marshall wins, the market will resolve to "Marshall".

If Penn State wins, the market will resolve to "Penn State".

If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.

If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Sep 5, 2026

  • 08:57 PM
    0X0x92F59e08060C00C9b2Dde0098D272f66C34C52A2-1786873013481
    $5.02

    Bought 5.91 Penn State for Spread: Penn State (-23.5) at 0.85

  • 08:57 PM
    URUranusProbe
    $4.30

    Bought 5.05882 Penn State for Spread: Penn State (-23.5) at 0.85

  • 08:57 PM
    RNRN1
    $841.50

    Bought 990 Penn State for Spread: Penn State (-23.5) at 0.85

  • 08:57 PM
    DIdips.
    $30.60

    Bought 36 Penn State for Spread: Penn State (-23.5) at 0.85

  • 08:57 PM
    DIdips.
    $22.95

    Bought 27 Penn State for Spread: Penn State (-23.5) at 0.85

  • 08:56 PM
    HOHomeRunHazard
    $37.71

    Bought 87.69 Under for Marshall vs. Penn State: O/U 43.5 at 0.43

  • 08:49 PM
    1W1winstreak1
    $20.00

    Bought 50 Over for Marshall vs. Penn State: O/U 49.5 at 0.4

  • 08:49 PM
    ——
    $1.06

    Bought 2.65 Over for Marshall vs. Penn State: O/U 49.5 at 0.4

  • 08:49 PM
    0X0x92F59e08060C00C9b2Dde0098D272f66C34C52A2-1786873013481
    $1.04

    Bought 2.6 Over for Marshall vs. Penn State: O/U 49.5 at 0.4

  • 08:40 PM
    ——
    $5.00

    Bought 5.376343 Penn State for Spread: Penn State (-23.5) at 0.93

  • 08:37 PM
    COcosmicsteaks
    $5.10

    Bought 6 Penn State for Spread: Penn State (-23.5) at 0.85

  • 08:37 PM
    DIdips.
    $8.50

    Bought 10 Penn State for Spread: Penn State (-23.5) at 0.85

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

WR1
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r
事件損益
+$144.07
成交量
$16,745.10
持倉數
Marshall
HO2
HomeRunHazard
事件損益
+$168.34
成交量
$15,967.98
持倉數
OverOverMarshall+4
FL3
Flipadelphia
事件損益
-$133.70
成交量
$10,000.00
持倉數
Penn State
MA4
matanovik
事件損益
+$342.98
成交量
$6,377.00
持倉數
UnderUnder
HO5
Hoch
事件損益
+$239.48
成交量
$5,263.16
持倉數
Penn State
HE6
0xheavy888
事件損益
-$348.85
成交量
$4,576.98
持倉數
UnderOver
497
0x49F206
事件損益
-$25.07
成交量
$3,843.39
持倉數
Penn State
NI8
nigiri99
事件損益
-$0.20
成交量
$2,819.14
持倉數
MarshallMarshall

常見問題

目前市場對「Marshall vs. Penn State」的共識是什麼？

截至最新更新，Spread -13.5 以 9,100% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 Spread -16.5（8,750%），以及 Spread -7.5（8,550%）。該市場總成交量已達 $52.7K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

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