Liberty vs. James Madison

$62.4K Vol
2026年9月5日
Active
機率趨勢
James Madison 67.5%
Liberty 32.5%

核心摘要

根據「Liberty vs. James Madison」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，O/U 35.5 以壓倒性的 7,800% 獲勝機率主導市場；Spread -1.5 以 7,700% 位居第二，Spread -2.5 以 7,450% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $62.4K，反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

  • O/U 35.5 (7,800%)：O/U 35.5 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 7,800¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

  • Spread -1.5 (7,700%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Spread -1.5 保持著 7,700% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 7,700¢。
  • Spread -2.5 (7,450%)：以 7,450% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Spread -2.5 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

  • 替代選項：包括 1H Spread -2.5 (7,050%)、Spread -3.5 (6,900%)，以及 1H Spread -3.5 (6,400%)。
  • 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Spread: James Madison (-6.5) 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes（成本）買入 No（成本）
1O/U 35.57800.0%—7800¢-7700¢
2Spread -1.57700.0%$507700¢-7600¢
3Spread -2.57450.0%$507450¢-7350¢
41H Spread -2.57050.0%—7050¢-6950¢
5Spread -3.56900.0%$1.2K6900¢-6800¢
61H Spread -3.56400.0%$506400¢-6300¢
7Spread: James Madison (-6.5)6200.0%$21.8K6200¢-6100¢
81H Spread -4.56150.0%—6150¢-6050¢
9Liberty O/U 16.56050.0%—6050¢-5950¢
10Spread -4.56000.0%$8286000¢-5900¢
11O/U 41.55550.0%$25550¢-5450¢
12Spread -7.55450.0%$6245450¢-5350¢
13Spread -8.55200.0%$405200¢-5100¢
141H Moneyline5100.0%$6195100¢-5000¢
152Q Spread -4.55100.0%$2315100¢-5000¢
16O/U 43.55050.0%—5050¢-4950¢
17Spread -0.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
18Spread -34.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
19O/U 31.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
20O/U 33.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
21O/U 37.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
22O/U 39.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
23O/U 49.55000.0%$25000¢-4900¢
24O/U 57.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
25O/U 63.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
26O/U 67.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
27O/U 69.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
282H Moneyline5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
291H Spread -1.55000.0%$2145000¢-4900¢
301H Spread -5.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
312Q Spread -0.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
322Q Spread -1.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
332Q Spread -2.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
342Q Spread -3.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
352Q Moneyline5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
363Q Spread -0.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
373Q Spread -1.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
383Q Spread -2.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
393Q Spread -3.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
403Q Moneyline5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
414Q Spread -0.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
424Q Spread -1.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
434Q Spread -2.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
444Q Spread -3.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
454Q Moneyline5000.0%$10.0K5000¢-4900¢
46James Madison O/U 22.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
47James Madison O/U 25.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
48James Madison O/U 31.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
492H Spread -0.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
502H Spread -1.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
512H Spread -2.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
522H Spread -3.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
532H Spread -4.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
54Liberty O/U 15.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
55Liberty O/U 18.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
56Liberty O/U 24.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
57Liberty 1H O/U 8.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
58Liberty 1H O/U 10.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
59Liberty 1H O/U 12.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
60James Madison 1H O/U 12.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
61James Madison 1H O/U 14.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
62James Madison 1H O/U 16.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
63Liberty 2H O/U 8.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
64Liberty 2H O/U 10.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
65Liberty 2H O/U 12.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
66James Madison 2H O/U 11.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
67James Madison 2H O/U 13.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
68James Madison 2H O/U 15.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
69James Madison O/U 21.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
70James Madison O/U 24.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
71James Madison O/U 33.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
72Liberty O/U 22.55000.0%$1175000¢-4900¢
73Liberty O/U 25.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
74Liberty O/U 28.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
75James Madison O/U 3.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
76Liberty O/U 2.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
77George Pettaway: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
78Seth Cromwell: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
79Nick Herman: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
80Kanye Udoh: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
81Camden Coleman: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
82Deshawn Purdie: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
83Kam Davis: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
84Peyton Jones: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
85Jeremiah Harrison: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
86Corey Scott: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
87Jamari Person: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
88Rashawn Cunningham: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
89Makai Jackson: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
90Cole Keller: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
91Jaylon Coleman: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
92Michael Scott: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
93Braeden Wisloski: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
94Jon Monteiro: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
95Lee Johnson: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
96Za'Ron Collins: Anytime Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
97Spread -31.54995.0%$64995¢-4895¢
98James Madison O/U 27.54800.0%—4800¢-4700¢
99Spread -10.54600.0%$6734600¢-4500¢
100Liberty O/U 19.54550.0%—4550¢-4450¢
101James Madison O/U 28.54500.0%$3564500¢-4400¢
102O/U 45.54300.0%$24300¢-4200¢
103O/U 61.54300.0%—4300¢-4200¢
104Spread -5.54250.0%$3.4K4250¢-4150¢
105O/U 47.53850.0%$3163850¢-3750¢
106Liberty O/U 21.53850.0%—3850¢-3750¢
107Spread -13.53750.0%$1793750¢-3650¢
108James Madison O/U 30.53400.0%—3400¢-3300¢
109Spread -14.53250.0%$503250¢-3150¢
110O/U 50.53100.0%$1.1K3100¢-3000¢
111Spread -16.52850.0%$502850¢-2750¢
112O/U 51.52550.0%$7.5K2550¢-2450¢
113O/U 53.52500.0%—2500¢-2400¢
114James Madison O/U 34.52450.0%—2450¢-2350¢
115O/U 52.52400.0%$4422400¢-2300¢
116Spread -17.52400.0%—2400¢-2300¢
117Liberty O/U 27.52150.0%—2150¢-2050¢
118Liberty vs. James Madison2050.0%$20.5K2050¢-1950¢
119O/U 55.51900.0%—1900¢-1800¢
120Spread -20.51800.0%$771800¢-1700¢
121Spread -21.51400.0%—1400¢-1300¢
122O/U 59.51050.0%$501050¢-950¢
123Spread -24.5950.0%—950¢-850¢
124Spread -27.5900.0%—900¢-800¢
125O/U 65.5500.0%—500¢-400¢
126O/U 71.5400.0%—400¢-300¢

裁決規則

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 5 at 12:00PM ET:

If Liberty wins, the market will resolve to "Liberty".

If James Madison wins, the market will resolve to "James Madison".

If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.

If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Sep 5, 2026

  • 08:02 AM
    JGjgamondi
    $1.11

    Bought 2.3125 James Madison for Spread: James Madison (-6.5) at 0.48

  • 08:01 AM
    LUluismipfa
    $2.13

    Bought 4.4375 James Madison for Spread: James Madison (-6.5) at 0.48

  • 08:00 AM
    0X0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186
    $2,076.63

    Bought 3993.519229 Liberty for Spread: James Madison (-6.5) at 0.52

  • 07:00 AM
    MOmooseborzoi
    $2.41

    Bought 5.03 James Madison for Spread: James Madison (-6.5) at 0.48

  • 06:47 AM
    MOmooseborzoi
    $14.02

    Bought 29.21 Over for James Madison Team Total: O/U 28.5 at 0.48

  • 06:46 AM
    NInigiri99
    $15.60

    Bought 26 James Madison for 1H Spread: James Madison (-1.5) at 0.6

  • 06:28 AM
    EREricMing1 - 34457
    $49.00

    Bought 73.134327 James Madison for Liberty vs. James Madison at 0.67

  • 06:28 AM
    NInigiri99
    $103.80

    Bought 173 James Madison for 1H Spread: James Madison (-1.5) at 0.6

  • 05:55 AM
    MOmooseborzoi
    $97.45

    Bought 187.4 Liberty for Spread: James Madison (-6.5) at 0.52

  • 05:52 AM
    MOmooseborzoi
    $19.38

    Bought 37.27 Liberty for Spread: James Madison (-6.5) at 0.52

  • 05:45 AM
    MOmooseborzoi
    $24.10

    Bought 46.34 Liberty for Spread: James Madison (-6.5) at 0.52

  • 05:31 AM
    NInigiri99
    $763.80

    Bought 1140 James Madison for Liberty vs. James Madison at 0.67

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

TA1
takeormake
事件損益
+$424.70
成交量
$55,814.88
持倉數
Liberty
FE2
ferrariChampions2026
事件損益
-$202.29
成交量
$40,108.39
持倉數
James Madison
JU3
JUSTINHERBERTMVP
事件損益
-$2,129.01
成交量
$17,323.99
持倉數
LibertyLiberty
RN4
RN1
事件損益
+$110.21
成交量
$14,650.10
持倉數
James MadisonJames Madison
HI5
hi774c
事件損益
-$1,516.32
成交量
$13,888.02
持倉數
James MadisonJames Madison
PA6
Painfulvoid
事件損益
+$1,485.17
成交量
$9,901.10
持倉數
Liberty
HO7
HomeRunHazard
事件損益
+$872.18
成交量
$8,164.44
持倉數
James MadisonJames MadisonLiberty+2
HE8
0xheavy888
事件損益
+$660.00
成交量
$5,999.98
持倉數
James Madison

常見問題

目前市場對「Liberty vs. James Madison」的共識是什麼？

截至最新更新，O/U 35.5 以 7,800% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 Spread -1.5（7,700%），以及 Spread -2.5（7,450%）。該市場總成交量已達 $62.4K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

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