EC Vitória vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol - More Markets
核心摘要
根據「EC Vitória vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol - More Markets」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前，Both Teams to Score 以壓倒性的 50.5% 獲勝機率主導市場；Both Teams to Score in First Half 以 18.5% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 $112.2K，反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：
🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者
- Both Teams to Score (50.5%)：Both Teams to Score 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 51¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $792 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者
- Both Teams to Score in First Half (18.5%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Both Teams to Score in First Half 保持著 18.5% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 19¢。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes（成本） | 買入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Both Teams to Score | 50.5% | $792 | 51¢ | 50¢ |
| 2 | Both Teams to Score in First Half | 18.5% | $916 | 19¢ | 82¢ |
裁決規則
More markets for the Brazil Série A game, scheduled for October 7 at 7:00 PM ET.
AI 估值分析：發現市場錯誤定價與 EV 差
人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。
將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。
頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會
根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：
- 最被高估的結果：Both Teams to Score in First Half 當前交易價為 18.5%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 12%，形成 -6.5% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 50.5% | 48.8% | -1.8% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 18.5% | 12.0% | -6.5% |
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Oct 7, 2026
- 09:09 PMFLFlaznorp$368.35
Bought 695 Over for EC Vitória vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 2.5 at 0.53
- 09:09 PMYOyoucanbuythisbot$10.77
Bought 20.33 Over for EC Vitória vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 2.5 at 0.53
- 09:06 PM0X0x722D1396b68301081F947E00aec34A5E344e1B4E-1770956797582$167.10
Bought 170.509684 Under for EC Vitória vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 6.5 at 0.98
- 08:48 PMMEmephobia8$27.00
Bought 69.23077 EC Vitória for Spread: EC Vitória (-1.5) at 0.39
- 08:42 PMTHthiagoyush$1.10
Bought 7.33 Over for EC Vitória vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 4.5 at 0.15
- 08:40 PMCOColdMath$51.07
Bought 71.93 Over for EC Vitória vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: 1st Half O/U 0.5 at 0.71
- 08:40 PMTHthiagoyush$4.99
Bought 6.09 No for EC Vitória vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Both Teams to Score in First Half at 0.82
- 08:24 PMTRtraderfgdhm$1.00
Bought 1.219511 Associação Chapecoense de Futebol for Spread: EC Vitória (-2.5) at 0.82
- 08:08 PMTRtraderfgdhm$0.97
Sold 1.56 Associação Chapecoense de Futebol for Spread: EC Vitória (-1.5) at 0.62
- 07:49 PMCOColdMath$71.00
Bought 100 Over for EC Vitória vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: 1st Half O/U 0.5 at 0.71
- 07:49 PMDRdrksldr$8.00
Bought 11.267606 Over for EC Vitória vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: 1st Half O/U 0.5 at 0.71
- 07:49 PMCOColdMath$71.00
Bought 100 Over for EC Vitória vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: 1st Half O/U 0.5 at 0.71
正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包
常見問題
目前市場對「EC Vitória vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol - More Markets」的共識是什麼？
截至最新更新，Both Teams to Score 以 50.5% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 Both Teams to Score in First Half（18.5%）。該市場總成交量已達 $112.2K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。
AI 公允價值與即時市場交易價值有何不同？
即時市場交易價值反映的是公眾情緒、訂單簿動能與投機資金。我們的 AI 公允價值則由量化模型獨立計算，剔除情緒炒作、專注底層數據。兩者出現顯著背離時即形成 EV 差，提示市場對某個結果可能存在錯誤定價。
市場共識是否對某個結果反應過度？
是的——資料顯示市場對 Both Teams to Score in First Half 存在明顯的反應過度。人群把其即時交易價值推高至 18.5%，但我們的公允價值評估認為其真實機率僅為 12%，形成 -6.5% 的負 EV 差，表明該合約被高估。